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The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president, thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die.
FiveThirtyEight has Hillary with a 3-in-4 chance of winning the election. That’s a pretty good chance. But it’s also 1-in-4 chance of a boiler-room scam TV clown becoming president of America. And you know what? That is making me stressed out. If this were 20 years ago, I would’ve looked at polls showing Clinton up by 3 points nationally or up 6 points nationally and said, “this is in the bag, amigos!” But now we have Nate Silver and everyone else to tell us that a projected 5-point win …
Screenshot/FiveThirtyEight
… still translates to a 1-in-4 chance of losing given the statistical uncertainty involved.
And that is stressful as hell! C’mon, Hillz! Let’s push that lead up to something stress-impregnable like 10 points, or 15, or 40.
Photo illustration by Slate. Photo by Getty Images, Wikimedia Commons
