As coverage of FBI Director James Comey’s letter flooded the news media over the weekend, and Democrats panicked anew about a race that had looked sewn up as recently as Friday morning, I thought of the 12 undecided voters I observed in a Charlotte, North Carolina, focus group last week.
A few of them seemed resigned to voting for Hillary Clinton ultimately because their fear of Donald Trump outweighed their distrust of her. What sort of effect could the latest coverage of the private server have on those reluctant Clinton voters? After all, the server story had helped sandbag the polling numbers on the former secretary of state’s honesty and trustworthiness over the course of the year. Even if we have no idea whether anything scandalous was stored on Anthony Weiner’s computer—well, relating to the Clintons’ private server, that is—could the cloud of scandal and negative press tilt those lean-Clinton voters back toward not voting at all, or even toward voting Trump?
I asked the figure who led the focus group, longtime Democratic pollster Peter Hart, whose firm (among other things) co-conducts the blue-chip NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Could this news, say, strongly affect people like Donna Ryan, the focus-grouper leaning reluctantly toward Clinton because she just couldn’t find an excuse to vote for Trump?
“My guess is they probably stay” with Clinton, Hart said of the reluctant pro-Clinton leaners, though he could see their support getting ever more “wobbly.” Although he doesn’t believe that we’re going to get “really good numbers” on the effect of Friday’s bombshell until Thursday, he laid out which groups he thinks are cause for concern for the Clinton camp and which aren’t.
Hart’s not especially concerned about voters switching their preference after the Friday news. (Voters rarely switch their preferences, despite what the fluctuating polls might indicate.) “Until Donald Trump’s favorable feelings go up above 30 percent,” he said, “I just don’t see how a whole new basket of voters falls into his lap.” The email revelations, in other words, don’t suddenly give a large bloc of voters sudden reason to believe that Trump would be a masterful steward of the nuclear arsenal. “Somehow people have to say, ‘I like the guy,’ or, ‘I think he’s right,’ more than saying, ‘Boy, I’ve become more questionable about Hillary Clinton,’ ” he said. “So, I think he has to do something to improve his position before he can take full advantage of this opening.”
What concerns Hart more is dampened turnout from soft Clinton supporters—and Bernie Sanders voters, specifically. “That’s where I worry,” Hart said. Sanders voters, especially young voters, view Clinton as dishonest and untrustworthy, and they’re not as likely to turn out. They may see this latest news and “then end up saying: ‘I never really liked Clinton anyway, and I certainly don’t want Trump. I’m just not gonna vote,’ ” Hart explained. “That’s where I worry, the softness of support and relative uncertainty ends up in a ‘no’ vote, or blanking the presidential.”
Not for nothing, Sen. Bernie Sanders himself announced Monday afternoon that he would campaign for Clinton in 12 states before Election Day.
