Thirty-four percent of registered voters say the presidential debates will be key to helping them decide who to support in the presidential election. And it’s even more important for Republicans than Democrats, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Supporters of third party candidates will also be watching the debate closely to see whether any of the two major party candidates can get them to change their voting preference. Among supporters of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, 44 percent described the debates as very important.
Whether the debates actually matter for the outcome of the race is far from clear. Despite all the hype, the numbers show debates “have done little to change the fundamental structure of recent presidential races,” notes NBC News.
This year could be an exception though considering the debates are happening at a time when some are saying the fundamentals of the race appear to be shifting and Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the polls. The advantage Clinton had in August has been erased among likely voters, 46 percent of which prefer Clinton versus 44 percent who choose Trump, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. That two-point advantage doesn’t mean much considering it’s well within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error. Still, among registered voters, the split is even more clear as Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 2 percent.
That poll is hardly an outlier. A new Morning Consult poll, for example, showed Trump leads Clinton by one point among likely voters, a shift from the two-point lead Clinton enjoyed earlier this month. Clinton’s lead is vanishing not just nationally but also in some key states. In Pennsylvania, for example, Clinton’s lead now stands at three points—44 percent to 41 percent—a stark contrast to the 9-point advantage she enjoyed earlier in the month, according to the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll.
Amid such a close contest, voters are clearly very interested to see what will happen when the two candidates face-off on Monday with 80 percent of voters saying they will be tuning in, according to the Post/ABC poll.