The race for the White House no longer looks to be the laugher it had been shaping up to be, but what about the fate of the Senate, which has long promised to go down to the wire? Here’s where things stand with two months to go until Election Day.
Republicans currently hold a four-seat advantage in the upper chamber, meaning Democrats need to net either four seats if Hillary Clinton wins the White House and Vice President Tim Kaine becomes the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, or five if Donald Trump pulls off the upset this November. (To gain a filibuster-proof supermajority, however, Democrats would need to pick up 14 seats, which would take some sort of miracle.)
Working in Democrats’ favor: This year’s electoral map is particularly friendly—and was even before Trump stepped off an escalator and into the nightmares of moderate GOP senators like Illinois’ Mark Kirk and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte. (Thanks to partisan gerrymandering and geographical quirks, GOP control of the House remains safe.)
Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs this fall, Democrats hold just 10—nine of which are somewhere between safe and so safe that a Republican won’t even be on the ballot. The sole exception is in Nevada, where the race to replace retiring-Sen. Harry Reid looks like a toss-up. Meanwhile, more than a dozen seats currently held by Republicans remain in play. According to the Cook Political Report’s most recent ratings—published last month—eight of the GOP seats could go either way, two currently favor the Republicans but are far from a sure bet, and another three appear safe for now but hold the potential to turn competitive before Election Day.
Toss-ups: Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Lean Republican: Arizona, Missouri
Likely Republican: Alaska, Georgia, Iowa
Other analysts have been more aggressive with their prognostications. When the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato looks into his crystal ball, for instance, Nevada is the only toss-up he sees. Here are his ratings for the 13 Republican-held seats he believes are still in doubt:
Likely Democrat: Illinois, Wisconsin
Lean Democrat: Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Lean Republican: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio
Likely Republican: Georgia, Louisiana
If the states Sabato sees as likely and leaning Dem ultimately go Dem, then the Democrats would retake the Senate by holding onto Reid’s seat in Nevada—regardless of who becomes president.
The New York Times’ Upshot is willing to put numbers on its predictions. While the site doesn’t use the traditional safe/likely/lean/toss-up taxonomy other sites prefer, its predictions for the 14 most competitive Republican-held seats break down largely along the same lines:
Likely Democrat: Wisconsin (88 percent chance the seat flips from red to blue)
Lean Democrat: Illinois (78 percent)
Toss-up: New Hampshire (63 percent), Pennsylvania (57 percent), Indiana (56 percent)
Lean Republican: North Carolina (27 percent), Florida (26 percent), Arizona (17 percent), Missouri (17 percent)
Likely Republican: Ohio (13 percent), Louisiana (9 percent), Kentucky (6 percent), Georgia (6 percent), Iowa (5 percent)
The site, meanwhile, gives Republicans a 61 percent chance of poaching Reid’s seat. Overall, the NYT model gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of retaking the Senate, which is more than three times better than the odds it gives Trump of becoming president.
It remains too early to narrow down the list any further—reliable polling remains a little scarce, and Senate races (thankfully) aren’t nearly as protracted as the presidential election—but if you wanted to focus on only a handful of contests, your best bet is to look to those states where the Democratic challengers are strongest at the moment: Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is facing a high-profile challenge from former Sen. Russ Feingold; Illinois, where Kirk is trying to hold off Rep. Tammy Duckworth; New Hampshire, where Ayotte is squaring off with Gov. Maggie Hassan; Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey is being tested by Katie McGinty; and Indiana, where Sen. Dan Coats is retiring, and former GOP Rep. Todd Young is doing battle with late-comer and former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh.
Depending on the outcome nationally and in Nevada, Democrats could regain control of the Senate by winning as few as three of those, or may need all five. If they come up short, the Senate will remain in the hands of Republicans, and Democrats will be left to watch as it works either with a President Trump or against a President Clinton.
