The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president, thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die.
Donald Trump is likely to win the overall vote in the five Northeastern states holding elections today, which will mean it’s still within the realm of possibility that he makes it to the Republican convention with enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot. A few other developments are less salutary for the real-estate heir, though:
1. A Huffington Post piece quoted a number of former and current military officers who say Trump’s promises about waterboarding and killing the families of terrorism suspects would precipitate an instant crisis were he to actually become commander-in-chief. Included in the HuffPo article are a number of quotes of the kind that would seem likely to be very effective fodder for attack ads, especially coming from soldiers:
One former Marine infantry officer described Trump to me as a “fake-bake-ing chicken hawk” whose “knowledge of the Middle East could be trumped (sorry) by your average Georgetown sophomore.”
2. A Politico piece that seems to be sourced to allies of campaign manager Corey Lewandowski (if not to Lewandowski himself) suggests that Trump is pushing back against new aide Paul Manafort’s suggestion that he act more dignified and presidential. (Lewandowski represents Trump’s id in this argument and wants the candidate to continue to be spontaneous and crude.) This kind of infighting is not uncommon—and is even encouraged—in Trump’s orbit, so this probably doesn’t mean the campaign is falling apart or anything. But we’re operating here under the assumption that Trump won’t be able to win in November unless he makes a long-term effort to address the fact that most voters find him unlikable. In this paradigm, any suggestion that he plans to continue to be a big-mouthed boor is bad for his chances.
The danger level stays (relatively) low today.
Photo illustration by Slate. Photo by Getty Images, Wikimedia Commons
