The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president, thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die.
As polling anticipated, Trump won the New York primary by a lot last night. After underperforming in Wisconsin before two weeks of press that was bad even by his standards, it seemed possible that a Trump fade was about to ensue. But there certainly wasn’t any fading done in the Empire State—Trump will likely pick up 90 of the state’s 95 delegates.
Where does that leave him? Slate’s Josh Voorhees did the math this morning. Of the 620 delegates still up for grabs in the remaining 15 contests:
- Trump needs 63 percent to reach 1,237 and secure the nomination
- Trump needs 55 percent to be within 50 of that magic number
- Trump needs 47 percent to be within 100 of that magic number
It still seems like a bit of a stretch to project that Trump will get to 1,237 on pledged delegates, although he might if he gets 57 winner-take-all delegates out of the May 3 primary in Indiana—where no one knows how much support he has because the state forbids automated telephone calls and is therefore difficult to poll. (Ted Cruz is believed to have a slight edge over Trump in Indiana based on its demographics.) Trump’s backup plan, Voorhees explains, is to get close enough to 1,237 that the 200-some unpledged delegates at the Republican convention feel obligated to back him because of public pressure.
Will that work? I don’t know! But let’s bump the danger level back up again given that it’s at least a coherent, plausible plan to get the nomination.
Photo illustration by Slate. Photo by Getty Images, Wikimedia Commons
