The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president, thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die.
Behold! I, Slatest blogger Ben Mathis-Lilley, have returned from a pleasant California vacation to seize control of the Trump Apocalypse Watch from Slate campaign analyst and noted Trump paranoiac Josh Voorhees, who yesterday elevated our Trump-election danger level to a reading of 1.5 horsemen after reports that Paul Ryan might be considering the possibility of seeking the Republican nomination at the party’s July convention. (Voorhees believes, with justification, that any “establishment” plot against Trump would have the counterproductive effect of convincing even more Republican voters to support him.) And since my return I’ve seen the following Trump news items:
- Trump only led Hillary Clinton by 3 points in a general-election poll in Mississippi, which hasn’t gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1976.
- Trump announced the details of his vaunted plan to force Mexico to pay for the construction of a border wall. Our economics blogger and other experts say the plan is legally ludicrous and won’t work.
- Trump’s campaign manager said that the candidate plans a series of policy speeches in august settings to lay out the details of initiatives such as his border-wall thing.
Taken as a whole, today’s news for Trump is … mixed. He seems to realize he needs to start winning over general-election voters—hence the policy details. But, at the same time, he’s probably going to have trouble winning over voters with his plans because his plans, generally speaking, are terrible. For now, then, we’ll leave the Apocalypse Watch set at …