Wins by candidate:
Trump (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
Cruz (3): Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas
Rubio (1): Minnesota
Clinton (7): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
Sanders (4): Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont
Ben Carson: Nothing yet, but keep refreshing this page just in case
Update, 12:13 a.m.: And so ends Slate's Super Tuesday live-blog. (We likely won't know who won Alaska's GOP caucus until the morning, so check back with us then for results and plenty of more analysis.) The night's big takeaways: Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remain the clear front-runners for their party's nomination. So, yeah, after all that, the status quo holds. Super Tuesday indeed!
Update, 12:05 a.m.: Add a seventh victory to Trump's Super Tuesday win column. The Associated Press is calling Vermont for the Donald. That means John Kasich—who is currently running a close second in the state—will likely be shut out tonight. (The only remaining state is Alaska, where the Ohio governor isn't thought to be competitive and from which we won't get final results until the wee hours of the morning.)
Update, 11:56 p.m.: That's a wrap for the Democratic states that held a Super Tuesday caucus or primary. In the end, Clinton's southern firewall held again: She won all six contests in the South, many by rather massive margins. (With 83 percent of the vote counted in Alabama, she was up 60 points; with 92 percent counted in Georgia, she was up by 43.) She also narrowly won Massachusetts, which will take some of the sting away from the shellacking she received in New Hampshire last month. Bernie, meanwhile, notched four wins of his own, which will give him a reason to solider one—though unless he can win over black voters, Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite.
Update, 11:35 p.m.: CNN is calling Massachusetts for Hillary Clinton, her seventh of the night.
Update, 11:31 p.m.: CNN is calling Minnesota for Bernie Sanders, his fourth victory of his night. It's looking as though Sanders won't be able to make it 5-for-5 in Super Tuesday states outside of the South, though; with nearly 90 percent of precincts reporting in Massachusetts, Clinton is up on Sanders by 2 points.
Update, 11:20 p.m.: CNN is calling Minnesota for Marco Rubio. That's not just the first time the Republican Party's chosen candidate has won a state on Super Tuesday—it's the first time he's won one this year. The victory will give Rubio an answer to all those questions about whether he could actually win a nominating contest, but it's hardly the type of statement that will calm the nerves of a worried GOP establishment that has watched Trump add a half dozen more states to his win column today.
Update, 11:02 p.m.: NBC News has called Colorado for Sanders. The Super Tuesday map was a tough one for Bernie, but he's so far notched a trio of wins and is also looking good in Minnesota and Massachusetts. It's possible that he wakes up Wednesday with five wins in the only five state he invested heavily in during recent days. His problem, though, is that Clinton's big wins throughout the South make it difficult to see his path past her to the nomination.
Update, 10:58 p.m.: The worst scenario still possible for Rubio would be if Super Tuesday ends with Cruz winning Texas and Oklahoma, John Kasich squeezing out a win in Vermont, and Trump sweeping the rest. Rubio, though, still has hope. With more than 50 percent of precincts reporting in Minnesota, Rubio's up by 9 points on Cruz, and 16 on Trump. Kasich, meanwhile, trails Trump by 1.5 points with 78 percent of precincts reporting.
Update, 10:46 p.m.: Super Tuesday's not over yet, and the big question marks on the Republican side are in Minnesota, where Marco "I Have Not Yet Won a State" Rubio currently holds a lead in the early returns, and Vermont, where John "I Also Have Not Won a State" Kasich is within a few hundred votes of Trump with about 70 percent of precincts reporting. (The only other GOP contest yet to be called is Alaska, but it could be morning before we know who won there.)
Update, 10:28 p.m.: Trump wins Arkansas, the AP and NBC say. Here is a post about Chris Christie's extremely sad introduction of Trump at Trump's victory event in Florida.
Update, 9:51 p.m.: Hillary Clinton's multi-state victory speech.
Update, 9:38 p.m.: The Times' Nate Cohn says that exit polls show that voters who only recently decided who to vote for generally favored Rubio today. That's what happened in Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada too—and yet in no state has that advantage translated into a Rubio victory. Maybe he can just try to get every primary pushed back two weeks?
Update, 9:23 p.m.: Here's video of Bernie Sanders' victory speech in Vermont. Let's say it implicitly covers his win in Oklahoma, which was just called for him, as well.
Update, 9:13 p.m.: The calls keep coming. CNN, NBC and others have called Texas for Cruz and Clinton, and Oklahoma for Cruz and Sanders. Cruz will make a big deal of winning his home state—and adding a neighboring one as well—but remember, Super Tuesday wasn't suppose to be the day he won Texas, it was supposed to be the day he won the South.
Update, 8:51 p.m.: NBC and CNN are now also calling Virginia for Trump. That gives him five so far.
Update, 8:45 p.m.: Fox is calling Virginia for Trump, but no one else has followed their lead on that yet. Meanwhile, Business Insider's Brent LoGiurato highlights a funny/sad tweet by wishful-thinking movement conservative Hugh Hewitt:
Update, 8:31 p.m.: Clinton won Arkansas. Here's an article about why the s at the end of "Arkansas" is silent but the one at the end of "Kansas" isn't.
Update, 8:01 p.m.: Trump is projected to win Alabama, Massachusetts, and Tennessee by ... everyone. Clinton is projected by the same "everyone" to win Alabama and Tennessee. The Democratic Massachusetts race and both Oklahoma races aren't getting called yet.
Update, 7:45 p.m.: Micah Cohen of FiveThirtyEight (here's their live-blog!) has kindly responded to my question about the difference between "too close to call" and "too early to call."
@BenMathisLilley haha, "too early" is we don't have enough data; "too close" is we have data, and the race is really close.— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) March 2, 2016
Update, 7:30 p.m.: The big exit-poll news so far on the Republican side—according to, well, every analyst on Twitter—is that Marco Rubio is running close to Donald Trump in Virginia while John Kasich is running close to Trump in Vermont. Going into tonight FiveThirtyEight's poll-wizards gave Trump a 69 percent chance of winning Virginia; the most recent poll in Vermont had Trump in the lead there.
Update, 7:01 p.m.: Hillary Clinton is being projected by various outlets to have won Georgia and Virginia. Bernie Sanders wins his home state of Vermont. NBC says Donald Trump has won Georgia.
Update, 6:50 p.m.: An interesting tweet here by MSNBC pundit Joe Scarborough.
TEAM MARCO privately predicting wins in Minnesota, Virginia and Oklahoma. TEAM CRUZ expecting a stronger than expected night. #SuperTuesday— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) March 1, 2016
That's right: Ted Cruz's campaign is expecting to do better than expected. #analysis
Original post, 6:41 p.m.: Super Tuesday Super Tuesday Super Tuesday! Eleven Republican and 13 Democratic primaries and caucuses are going down today and results will start coming in at 7 p.m. ET when polls close in Georgia, Virginia, and Vermont.
Here's a rundown of what tonight's potential results will mean for the race. (Basically we're watching to see if Ted Cruz can win Texas, if Bernie Sanders can win Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Colorado, or Minnesota, and if Marco Rubio can win anything.) And, while we wait, here's some analysis of potential outcomes in a few states I just made up:
- Greater Whateverville: The latest polls in Greater Whateverville have found every candidate tied with the support of zero percent of the electorate.
- Bleep Bloop: The citizens of Bleep Bloop have vowed to throw their support behind whichever contender promises to change the name of their state to something more dignified.
- Texas: My editor has rejected this entry, describing the idea of a state in which citizens bring machine guns to fast-food restaurants and use the Bible as a science textbook as "implausible even as fiction." If it existed, outsiders would make fun of it but still visit because of the music and the barbecue.
Here we go! Super Tuesday!