We’re less than a week away from Super Tuesday, when roughly a quarter of the Republican delegates will be up for grabs. Reliable polling is still remarkably hard to come by for many of the 11 states voting on Tuesday, but by now it should come as no surprise which Republican is the favorite to have the best day: Donald J. Trump.
Polling has been so sparse that Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight have only released forecasts for roughly half of the contests, but Trump appears to be a good bet to add to his win total in Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont, where he enjoys comfortable double-digit leads and where he’s already posted commanding victories in nearby states. He’s also the favorite in Oklahoma, where his advantage is smaller though still clear, and looks to be competitive in Alaska, Tennessee, and Minnesota, as well.
The only place where the GOP front-runner appears particularly vulnerable is Texas, which will divvy up the most delegates that day. Losing to Cruz on his home turf won’t derail the Trump train—especially since he could still snag a decent chunk of the state’s 155 delegates—though it would be a welcome development for Cruz, who would lord it over Marco Rubio and John Kasich, both of whom are trailing Trump in polls of their own respective home states.
Rubio is desperate for a win anywhere he can get it, but it’s unclear where that might happen next Tuesday. (Minnesota?) Kasich, meanwhile, is just trying to survive until the race reaches the Midwest in the middle of the month.
There will be a total of 595 delegates up for grabs Tuesday, nearly half of the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination. None of the contests, though, are winner-take-all affairs—those don’t start until March 15—which means Trump may emerge with a commanding lead, but it won’t be an insurmountable one. Here’s a quick look at where things stand in Super Tuesday’s 11 nominating contests.
Where Trump Is Up Big
Alabama
Delegates: 50
Latest poll (Dec. 10-13): Trump 35, Cruz 15, Rubio 12, Carson 12, Kasich 2
RCP average: Trump 32.5, Rubio 11.5, Carson 11.5, Cruz 11.0, Kasich 1
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: 89 percent chance of Trump victory
2012 Winner: Rick Santorum
2008 Winner: Mike Huckabee
Georgia
Delegates: 76
Latest poll (Feb. 22-23): Trump 45, Rubio 19, Cruz 16, Carson 8, Carson 6
RCP average: Trump 37.0, Rubio 21.3, Cruz 18.3, Carson 8.0, Kasich 7.7
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: 81 percent chance of Trump victory
2012 Winner: Newt Gingrich
2008 Winner: Mike Huckabee
Virginia
Delegates: 49
Latest poll (Feb. 22-24): Trump 41, Rubio 27, Cruz 14, Kasich 7, Carson 7
RCP average:Trump 34.5, Rubio 24.5, Cruz 16.5, Kasich 7.0, Carson 7.0
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: 85 percent chance of Trump victory
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: John McCain
Massachusetts
Delegates: 42
Latest poll (Feb. 19-21): Trump 50, Rubio 16, Kasich 13, Cruz 10, Carson 2
RCP average: Trump 41.0, Rubio 17.0, Cruz 10.0, Kasich 7.5, Carson 3.5
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: Mitt Romney
Vermont
Delegates: 16
Latest poll (Feb. 3-17): Trump 32, Rubio 17, Cruz 11, Kasich 10, Carson 3
RCP average: n/a
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: John McCain
Where Trump Is Favored
Oklahoma
Delegates: 43
Latest poll (Feb. 22-23): Trump 29, Rubio 21, Cruz 20, Carson 6, Kasich 5
RCP average: Trump 29.5, Cruz 22.5, Rubio 21.0, Carson 6.0, Kasich 4.0
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: 65 percent chance of Trump victory
2012 Winner: Rick Santorum
2008 Winner: John McCain
Where Cruz Is Up Big
Texas
Delegates: 155
Latest poll (Feb. 22-24): Cruz 38, Trump 23, Rubio 21, Carson 6, Kasich 5
RCP average: Cruz 34.0, Trump 26.8, Rubio 18.2, Kasich 7.0, Carson 5.4
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: 79 percent chance of Cruz victory
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: John McCain
Difficult to Tell
Minnesota
Delegates: 38
Latest poll (Jan 18-20): Rubio 23, Cruz 21, Trump 18, Carson 11, Kasich 2
RCP average: Trump 20.7, Rubio 14.7, Carson 13.7, Cruz 10.7, Kasich 2.5
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
2012 Winner: Rick Santorum
2008 Winner: Mitt Romney
Alaska
Delegates: 28
Latest poll (Jan. 5-12): Trump 28, Cruz 24, Carson 9, Rubio 7, Kasich 2
RCP average: n/a
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
No. of polls this year: 1
No. of polls since Iowa: None
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: Mitt Romney
Tennessee
Delegates: 58
RCP average: n/a
Latest poll (Nov. 11-23): Trump 29, Carson 25, Cruz 14, Rubio 12, Kasich n/a
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
No. of polls this year: None
No. of polls since Iowa: None
2012 Winner: Rick Santorum
2008 Winner: Mike Huckabee
Arkansas
Delegates: 40
RCP average: n/a
Latest poll (Feb. 4): Cruz 27, Trump 23, Rubio 23, Carson 11, Kasich 4
FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast: n/a
No. of polls this year: 1
No. of polls since Iowa: 1
2012 Winner: Mitt Romney
2008 Winner: Mike Huckabee
