Donald Trump loses average polling lead to Ben Carson.

Donald Trump’s 106-Day Reign as National Polling Leader Just Ended

Donald Trump’s 106-Day Reign as National Polling Leader Just Ended

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Nov. 4 2015 10:48 AM

Donald Trump Is No Longer the Front-Runner in National GOP Polls

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Screenshot of the RealClearPolitics national GOP average on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015.

Donald Trump’s 106-day reign atop the RealClearPolitics national polling average is officially over.

Trump took the lead in the running average—which is widely used to provide a polling snapshot of the Republican nominating contest—for the first time on July 20, when he inched past then-leader Jeb Bush, 16.8 percent to 14.8 percent. On Wednesday, the blustery billionaire was finally knocked from his perch by Ben Carson.

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Trump’s lead was at its largest—at more than 14 points—in late August and early September as Bush fell away and Carson began his rise. Trump reached his high-water mark of 30.5 percent on Sept. 16, the day of the second GOP debate.

Trump and Carson are neck and neck in the current RCP average, with Carson holding a 1-point lead after the latest Quinnipiac survey was released on Wednesday. Incidentally, that poll actually showed Trump leading Carson, 24 percent to 23 percent, but it replaced a previous survey used to compile the average that was more favorable to Trump. The Donald, then, could very easily regain his lead in the coming days. In the meantime, though, the man who sees himself as the consummate “winner”—and who has repeatedly used his front-runner status to justify his political existence on the campaign trail—will have to be content with second place.

Josh Voorhees is a Slate senior writer. He lives in Iowa City.