Poll: Obama Ahead in Ohio and Florida

The Slatest
Your News Companion by Ben Mathis-Lilley
Nov. 3 2012 1:20 PM

Latest Polls Show President Obama Ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio and Florida

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Mitt Romney appears to be trailing in the key battleground state of Ohio

Photo by EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

As Election Day nears, President Obama is leading in Florida by two percentage points and has a six-point advantage in the crucial state of Ohio among likely voters, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll. The results are little changed from a month ago, when the president was already leading among likely voters in the two states. Obama’s stronger lead in Ohio is clearly the more important of the two, showing how support for the president seems to have solidified among voters. The Florida lead of 49 percent to 47 percent was within the poll’s margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, but his 51 percent to 45 percent advantage in Ohio was larger than the margin of error of 3.1 points.

Yet the polls are hardly uniform. Notably, the latest Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey claims Mitt Romney holds a six-percentage-point advantage over Obama in Florida. “I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. For its part, a CNN/ORC International poll found Obama was ahead in Ohio among likely voters by a lower margin, 50 percent to 47 percent. For now, the Real Clear Politics average sees Romney with an advantage of 1.4 points in Florida and Obama with an advantage of 2.9 points in Ohio. Nationally, the race remains a dead heat with the RCP average at 47.4 percent for Obama and 47.3 percent for Romney.

Daniel Politi has been contributing to Slate since 2004 and wrote the "Today's Papers" column from 2006 to 2009. You can follow him on Twitter @dpoliti.

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