Most Voters Expect an Obama Victory

Your News Companion by Ben Mathis-Lilley
Oct. 31 2012 9:03 AM

Most Americans Are Predicting an Obama Victory

President Obama makes his way to board Air Force One October 29, 2012 before departing from Orlando, Fla

Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images.

President Obama will win next week's election—at least that's the prediction of the American public, according to a pair of polls released this week.

Josh Voorhees Josh Voorhees

Josh Voorhees is a Slate senior writer. He lives in Iowa City. 

Fifty-four percent of Americans say they think the president will be reelected next Tuesday, compared to only 32 percent who expect Mitt Romney to come out on top once all the votes are counted, according to the latest Gallup survey (which was released today but conducted over the weekend before Sandy hit).


Those number show a slightly closer race than the one Americans saw the last time Gallup asked the question. At the end of August, the split was 58 percent to 36 percent for the president; in early May, it was 56 percent to 36 percent.

Here's the latest party breakdown:


Politico explains Americans' recent track record when it comes to predicting a winner (of the popular vote, at least):

In the 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 election, Americans accurately predicted the popular vote winner. The gap between Obama and Romney is similar to the gap between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. Fifty-two percent of registered voters thought then-Vice President Gore would defeat the Texas governor, while 35 percent thought Bush would win.

Today's Gallup numbers are largely in line with a Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday that had registered voters predicting an Obama win, 53 percent to 29 percent. A majority in that survey also said they expected the president to win their state.



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