Poll: Obama Has Four-Point Lead

The Slatest
Your News Companion by Ben Mathis-Lilley
Sept. 8 2012 4:35 PM

Early Polls Show Obama Getting Bigger Bounce Than Romney From Convention

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President Obama delivers remarks in St. Petersburg, Florida on Saturday

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Gallup handed President Obama some good news Saturday through its daily tracking poll that suggests his post-convention bounce could be significant. The latest poll puts Obama at 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 45 percent for Mitt Romney, according to the Hill. The figures mark a one-point increase from Friday. And quite a contrast from Romney, who saw 46-percent support in the four days following the convention, the exact same number as the four days preceding the convention.

Meanwhile, the Reuters/Ipsos poll also gives Obama a four-percentage-point lead over Romney. Of 1,457 likely voters surveyed online over the past four days, 47 percent say they would vote for Obama, compared with 43 percent for Romney, reports Reuters. That marks a one-point increase for Obama from the poll released Friday. And it marks a reversal since Romney had been the one with the 1 or 2 percentage point lead following his party’s convention, notes Reuters.

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"The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen... but it's here," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

Also significant is that the Friday Gallup poll put Obama’s approval rating at 52 percent, which FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver says “is a sign there could be more good news” for Obama in the coming days.

Still, it’s important to highlight that leads that open up in post-convention polls can disappear quickly. The fact that Friday’s disappointing jobs report was released right after Obama spoke at the convention “may hasten that,” notes the Christian Science Monitor. And the Obama camp clearly wants to downplay the possibility of a bounce. “Our suspicion is, the race is going to be about where it was,” senior adviser David Plouffe said, according to Politico. “And that’s a problem for Mitt Romney.”

Daniel Politi has been contributing to Slate since 2004 and wrote the "Today's Papers" column from 2006 to 2009. You can follow him on Twitter @dpoliti.

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