Poll: Obama Has Four-Point Lead

Your News Companion by Ben Mathis-Lilley
Sept. 8 2012 4:35 PM

Early Polls Show Obama Getting Bigger Bounce Than Romney From Convention

151507986
President Obama delivers remarks in St. Petersburg, Florida on Saturday

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Gallup handed President Obama some good news Saturday through its daily tracking poll that suggests his post-convention bounce could be significant. The latest poll puts Obama at 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 45 percent for Mitt Romney, according to the Hill. The figures mark a one-point increase from Friday. And quite a contrast from Romney, who saw 46-percent support in the four days following the convention, the exact same number as the four days preceding the convention.

Meanwhile, the Reuters/Ipsos poll also gives Obama a four-percentage-point lead over Romney. Of 1,457 likely voters surveyed online over the past four days, 47 percent say they would vote for Obama, compared with 43 percent for Romney, reports Reuters. That marks a one-point increase for Obama from the poll released Friday. And it marks a reversal since Romney had been the one with the 1 or 2 percentage point lead following his party’s convention, notes Reuters.

Advertisement

"The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen... but it's here," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

Also significant is that the Friday Gallup poll put Obama’s approval rating at 52 percent, which FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver says “is a sign there could be more good news” for Obama in the coming days.

Still, it’s important to highlight that leads that open up in post-convention polls can disappear quickly. The fact that Friday’s disappointing jobs report was released right after Obama spoke at the convention “may hasten that,” notes the Christian Science Monitor. And the Obama camp clearly wants to downplay the possibility of a bounce. “Our suspicion is, the race is going to be about where it was,” senior adviser David Plouffe said, according to Politico. “And that’s a problem for Mitt Romney.”

Daniel Politi has been contributing to Slate since 2004 and wrote the "Today's Papers" column from 2006 to 2009. You can follow him on Twitter @dpoliti.

TODAY IN SLATE

Politics

The Democrats’ War at Home

How can the president’s party defend itself from the president’s foreign policy blunders?

An Iranian Woman Was Sentenced to Death for Killing Her Alleged Rapist. Can Activists Save Her?

Piper Kerman on Why She Dressed Like a Hitchcock Heroine for Her Prison Sentencing

Windows 8 Was So Bad That Microsoft Will Skip Straight to Windows 10

Homeland Is Good Again! For Now.

Politics

Cringing. Ducking. Mumbling.

How GOP candidates react whenever someone brings up reproductive rights or gay marriage.

Building a Better Workplace

You Deserve a Pre-cation

The smartest job perk you’ve never heard of.

The U.S. Has a New Problem in Syria: The Moderate Rebels Feel Like We’ve Betrayed Them

The Ludicrous Claims Women Are Pitched at “Egg Freezing Parties”

Behold
Oct. 1 2014 11:48 AM An Up-Close Look at the U.S.–Mexico Border
  News & Politics
The World
Oct. 1 2014 12:20 PM Don’t Expect Hong Kong’s Protests to Spread to the Mainland
  Business
Moneybox
Oct. 1 2014 2:16 PM Wall Street Tackles Chat Services, Shies Away From Diversity Issues 
  Life
The Eye
Oct. 1 2014 1:04 PM An Architectural Crusade Against the Tyranny of Straight Lines
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 1 2014 2:08 PM We Need to Talk: Terrible Name, Good Show
  Slate Plus
Political Gabfest
Oct. 1 2014 1:53 PM Slate Superfest East How to get your tickets before anyone else.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Oct. 1 2014 2:15 PM Gateway Episodes: Gilmore Girls
  Technology
Future Tense
Oct. 1 2014 1:25 PM Japanese Cheerleader Robots Balance and Roll Around on Balls
  Health & Science
Bad Astronomy
Oct. 1 2014 12:01 PM Rocky Snow
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 30 2014 5:54 PM Goodbye, Tough Guy It’s time for Michigan to fire its toughness-obsessed coach, Brady Hoke.