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It Looks Like the Filibuster Is Going to Survive

Thanks Orrin.  

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

Donald Trump’s presidential transition may still be a careening clown car full of white nationalist horrors, but today at least gave liberals a small reason for cheer about Washington. According to the Huffington Post, Utah’s Orrin Hatch has ruled out ending the filibuster, meaning that the procedural hurdle, which requires 60 votes to cut off debate in the Senate, will in all likelihood endure into the next term. Just as Republicans were able to freeze legislation during their time in the minority under President Obama, so-too will Democrats under President Trump.

Here’s HuffPo’s Michael McAuliffe on his exchange with Hatch, who is the Senate’s most senior Republican:

Asked by The Huffington Post about ending the filibuster, he was blunt.

“Are you kidding?” he said with some vehemence. “I’m one of the biggest advocates for the filibuster. It’s the only way to protect the minority, and we’ve been in the minority a lot more than we’ve been in the majority. It’s just a great, great protection for the minority.”

Hatch apparently isn’t alone. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has expressed his own disinclination to end the filibuster. MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin, meanwhile, says at least two other Senate Republicans have also said they won’t vote to eliminate it.

The Republicans will only have a small, 52-seat Senate majority next term, meaning that if Jeff Flake, James Inhofe, and Hatch want to keep the filibuster around, then it will survive. Presumably, they’re motivated by the knowledge that their party will be back in the minority one day. But Senate veterans might also just be trying to insulate themselves from the more radical House GOP’s most insane impulses. If something comes down the pike they don’t want a part in, they can let it die quietly at the hands of a Democratic blockade.

In the short-term, at least, this is very good news for Democrats. Conservatives have been urging the Senate to do away with the filibuster in order to make it easier to pass their agenda with a bare majority in the chamber. That, in all likelihood, won’t happen. It also means that if Republicans want to replace Obamacare, they’re going to need some buy-in from across the aisle.

But even with the filibuster in place, there’s still lots that Republicans can accomplish alone. Using the budget reconciliation process, the Senate can pass massive tax and spending cuts with just a bare majority vote. It can use that tool to effectively repeal large chunks of Obamacare and make major changes to programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and food stamps. So conservatives will have plenty of room to run. Democrats will just have a bit more power to resist.