Suddenly, tonight’s Brexit referendum results are looking less clear. Polls earlier today suggested the Remain campaign was comfortably leading. But with actual results coming in, that seems less sure—and markets are accordingly throwing a fit.
The first big surprise came to us from Sunderland, where the voters broke in favor of leaving, 61 percent to 39 percent. The working-class city was expected to vote for a Brexit, but not by that margin. Political scientist Chris Hanretty had projected something like a roughly 46-to-40 split (obviously that doesn’t add up to 100, but we’re talking estimates with some built-in error). At max, he foresaw about a 13-point gap—not 22 points. Leave very much outperformed. Meanwhile, the Remain campaign barely squeaked out a win in more heavily educated Newcastle with 50.7 percent of the vote, where it had expected a stronger performance.
In response, the British Pound has started plunging. The currency had been sitting at new highs for the year when it looked as if Remain was heading for a win.
With more regions dribbling in, ITV is reporting the results are consistent with a 50/50 vote. Get ready for a tense night ahead.
