Someone Tell the U.S. DOT That People Are Driving Less

A blog about business and economics.
Jan. 21 2014 5:12 PM

How the Department of Transportation Screws Up Traffic Forecasts

Here's an amazing chart from Eric Sundquist at the State Smart Transportation Initiative (via Clark Williams-Derry and Andrew Gelman) about how Department of Transportation forecasters have dealt with the much-discussed decline in driving in America:

VMT-C-P-chart-big1-541x550

We see that as VMT (vehicle-miles traveled) growth slowed, stalled out, and then went into decline, the DOT has consistently just forecast that it's on the verge of taking off again.

Matthew Yglesias is the executive editor of Vox and author of The Rent Is Too Damn High.