DOT traffic projections fail.

Someone Tell the U.S. DOT That People Are Driving Less

Someone Tell the U.S. DOT That People Are Driving Less

Moneybox
A blog about business and economics.
Jan. 21 2014 5:12 PM

How the Department of Transportation Screws Up Traffic Forecasts

Here's an amazing chart from Eric Sundquist at the State Smart Transportation Initiative (via Clark Williams-Derry and Andrew Gelman) about how Department of Transportation forecasters have dealt with the much-discussed decline in driving in America:

VMT-C-P-chart-big1-541x550

We see that as VMT (vehicle-miles traveled) growth slowed, stalled out, and then went into decline, the DOT has consistently just forecast that it's on the verge of taking off again.