Marco Rubio Is Not the Issue

A blog about business and economics.
June 5 2013 2:19 PM

On Immigration Reform, Marco Rubio Is Not the Issue

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Marco Rubio is a celebrity senator as well as a Cuban-American, and he's been engaged in an entertaining series of flip-flops on the question of comprehensive immigration reform that have captivated D.C. political reporters. But today's zig toward skepticism no more makes immigration reform doomed than last week's zags made it a sure thing. The core issue remains what it's long been—do House Republicans want to allow a comprehensive immigration reform bill to pass or don't they?

This is a slightly separate question from whether they want to vote for such a bill. Obviously some House Republicans have to vote for an immigration bill for it to pass. But not all that many. What does have to happen for an immigration bill to pass is that it has to come to the floor of the House of Representatives. And that's at the discretion of John Boehner, who is answerable first and foremost to his caucus. If his caucus has the sense that letting a bill go through is in its interest, then a bill has a fighting chance. If his caucus doesn't, then a bill doesn't.

And to be honest, it's a bit hard to see why the caucus would.


From the GOP perspective, the calculus of a path to citizenship has two elements. On the one hand, most of these new citizens would probably be Democrats. On the other hand, taking part in a bipartisan immigration reform effort might open Latino voters' ears to other aspects of the GOP message. But the absolute worst-case scenario is one in which a path to citzenship becomes law over the loud objections of GOP-elected officials. In fact, the best case for Republicans is the opposite—they vote for a bill, but Democrats kill it for some reason. Yet it's hard to see why that would happen. So basically this comes down to the hearts and minds of House Republicans. Do they think a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants is a good idea? Do they think there's some other aspect of immigration reform that's so valuable they want to trade it for a path to citizenship they dislike? If the answers are "no" and "no," then it's dead whatever Rubio does.

Matthew Yglesias is the executive editor of Vox and author of The Rent Is Too Damn High.



The Democrats’ War at Home

How can the president’s party defend itself from the president’s foreign policy blunders?

Congress’ Public Shaming of the Secret Service Was Political Grandstanding at Its Best

Michigan’s Tradition of Football “Toughness” Needs to Go—Starting With Coach Hoke

A Plentiful, Renewable Resource That America Keeps Overlooking

Animal manure.

Windows 8 Was So Bad That Microsoft Will Skip Straight to Windows 10


Cringing. Ducking. Mumbling.

How GOP candidates react whenever someone brings up reproductive rights or gay marriage.

Building a Better Workplace

You Deserve a Pre-cation

The smartest job perk you’ve never heard of.

Hasbro Is Cracking Down on Scrabble Players Who Turn Its Official Word List Into Popular Apps

Florida State’s New President Is Underqualified and Mistrusted. He Just Might Save the University.

  News & Politics
Sept. 30 2014 9:33 PM Political Theater With a Purpose Darrell Issa’s public shaming of the head of the Secret Service was congressional grandstanding at its best.
Sept. 30 2014 7:02 PM At Long Last, eBay Sets PayPal Free
Sept. 30 2014 7:35 PM Who Owns Scrabble’s Word List? Hasbro says the list of playable words belongs to the company. Players beg to differ.
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 30 2014 12:34 PM Parents, Get Your Teenage Daughters the IUD
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Sept. 30 2014 3:21 PM Meet Jordan Weissmann Five questions with Slate’s senior business and economics correspondent.
Brow Beat
Sept. 30 2014 8:54 PM Bette Davis Talks Gender Roles in a Delightful, Animated Interview From 1963
Future Tense
Sept. 30 2014 7:00 PM There’s Going to Be a Live-Action Tetris Movie for Some Reason
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 30 2014 11:51 PM Should You Freeze Your Eggs? An egg freezing party is not a great place to find answers to this or other questions.
Sports Nut
Sept. 30 2014 5:54 PM Goodbye, Tough Guy It’s time for Michigan to fire its toughness-obsessed coach, Brady Hoke.