Obama Did Worse In Places With Stronger Labor Market Recoveries

A blog about business and economics.
Nov. 14 2012 11:00 AM

Obama Did Worse In Places With Stronger Labor Market Recoveries

1352908814023

Jed Kolko, Trulia.com

Here's an interesting finding from Jed Kolko, the stronger the labor market recovery in any given metropolitan area the worse Obama did in 2012 relative to 2008.

I think we should see this first and foremost as a case study in the perils of univariate analysis. Kolko also finds that racial and ethnic composition issues impacted not only the level of support for Obama in a given place but also the rate of change. The whiter the place the worse Obama did not just in absolute terms but relative to his 2012 performance. It seems to me that for basically coincidental reasons, some of the biggest falls in unemployment have happened in very white places. It'd be interesting to rig up a much richer collection of data and see how the change in unemployment impacted the change in Obama support after controlling for various other demographic variables that we know to be politically relevant.

Matthew Yglesias is the executive editor of Vox and author of The Rent Is Too Damn High.

TODAY IN SLATE

Politics

Blacks Don’t Have a Corporal Punishment Problem

Americans do. But when blacks exhibit the same behaviors as others, it becomes part of a greater black pathology. 

I Bought the Huge iPhone. I’m Already Thinking of Returning It.

Scotland Is Just the Beginning. Expect More Political Earthquakes in Europe.

Lifetime Didn’t Think the Steubenville Rape Case Was Dramatic Enough

So they added a little self-immolation.

Two Damn Good, Very Different Movies About Soldiers Returning From War

Medical Examiner

The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola 

The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.

Students Aren’t Going to College Football Games as Much Anymore, and Schools Are Getting Worried

The Good Wife Is Cynical, Thrilling, and Grown-Up. It’s Also TV’s Best Drama.

  News & Politics
Weigel
Sept. 20 2014 11:13 AM -30-
  Business
Business Insider
Sept. 20 2014 6:30 AM The Man Making Bill Gates Richer
  Life
Quora
Sept. 20 2014 7:27 AM How Do Plants Grow Aboard the International Space Station?
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 19 2014 4:58 PM Steubenville Gets the Lifetime Treatment (And a Cheerleader Erupts Into Flames)
  Slate Plus
Slate Picks
Sept. 19 2014 12:00 PM What Happened at Slate This Week? The Slatest editor tells us to read well-informed skepticism, media criticism, and more.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 20 2014 3:21 PM “The More You Know (About Black People)” Uses Very Funny PSAs to Condemn Black Stereotypes
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 19 2014 6:31 PM The One Big Problem With the Enormous New iPhone
  Health & Science
Bad Astronomy
Sept. 20 2014 7:00 AM The Shaggy Sun
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.