Just about the clearest illustration you could ask for that prediction markets aren't quite ready for prime time yet is this whopping divergence between the odds of an Obama victory that are available on Betfair versus Intrade.
In a proper "efficient" market, arbitrageurs would take advantage of that money-making opportunity and in doing so would end up closing the price divergence. But there simply isn't enough money at stake to create the kind of deep liquid markets where that happens.
TODAY IN SLATE
Scalia’s Liberal Streak
The conservative justice’s most brilliant—and surprisingly progressive—moments on the bench.
Colorado Is Ground Zero for the Fight Over Female Voters
There’s a Way to Keep Ex-Cons Out of Prison That Pays for Itself. Why Don’t More States Use It?
The NFL Explains How It Sees “the Role of the Female”
The Music Industry Is Ignoring Some of the Best Black Women Singing R&B
Theo’s Joint and Vanessa’s Whiskey
No sitcom did the “Very Special Episode” as well as The Cosby Show.
The Other Huxtable Effect
Thirty years ago, The Cosby Show gave us one of TV’s great feminists.