As usual, the day before the official BLS Employment Situation Report comes out ADP has produced their own estimate of private sector dynamics and they're saying the economy added 201,000 jobs in August.
The ADP report is a pretty good predictor of the BLS number, but there's a lot of fuzziness. So there's no guarantee that 200,000 from ADP means we're going to get 200,000 from the BLS. But I start now with a baseline expectation that we're going to get 150,000 jobs in any given month. Then data comes in and you revise your estimate. An ADP number at 200,000 means that we'll probably beat 150,000. If I had my druthers and we were running a real monetary policy expansion, I think we could be adding jobs at 300,000 a month and really putting a big dent in the output gap. But with the policies we have in place the best we can really hope for is gains in the 150,000-200,000 range which is fast enough to reduce the unemployment rate but not so fast as to cause inflation.
TODAY IN SLATE
Blacks Don’t Have a Corporal Punishment Problem
I Bought the Huge iPhone. I’m Already Thinking of Returning It.
Scotland Is Just the Beginning. Expect More Political Earthquakes in Europe.
Lifetime Didn’t Think the Steubenville Rape Case Was Dramatic Enough
So they added a little self-immolation.
Two Damn Good, Very Different Movies About Soldiers Returning From War
- North Korea: American Sentenced to Hard Labor Wanted to Become “Second Snowden”
- Almost One in Four Americans Support Idea of Splitting From the Union
- ESPN Story Alleges Ravens, NFL Are Scapegoating Ray Rice in Coverup
- Dean of Islamic Studies at University of Karachi is Murdered Amid "Blasphemy" Allegations
The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola
The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.