Election 2009: Were the Exit Polls Wrong Again?

Election 2009: Were the Exit Polls Wrong Again?

Election 2009: Were the Exit Polls Wrong Again?

A mostly political weblog.
Nov. 3 2009 6:12 PM

Election 2009: Were the Exit Polls Wrong Again?

Why do I get the feeling that the VNS Exit Polls were way off--in a pro-Dem direction --once again? Answer : Because early evening posts like this one from Marc Ambinder seemed to be hinting at a Corzine victory:

Courtesy of CBS News : If Jon Corzine wins re-election, he can thank women, who gave him a narrow advantage and who voted at higher proportions than men did.

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He could have written "If Chris Christie is the new governor of N.J., he can thank men, who gave him a huge advantage ..." But ... he didn't. Did the exit polls show a relatively big Corzine victory? Back in the day when the exit polls were widely leaked, everyone would know what they were and--if they were wrong--they would know that they were wrong. Now they are more closely held--which allows the VNS to keep screwing up and hide its inaccuracy ... Again, if we can't trust the exit poll's bottom line result (presumably due to a  subtle bias in which voters pollsters talk to) why can we trust any of the demographic breakouts that scholars, etc. use? Won't they be subtly biased too? ...

Update: A kf source reports

Exits were close in VA and Corzine ahead in NJ. 

Pathetic! I guess I was wrong when I said they were subtly biased. ...   7:25  P.M.

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Hardy Perennial : Stuck in traffic this evening? Why the end of Daylight Saving Time invariably produces giant, gas-wasting jams on local freeways. ...    3:49  P.M.

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Shorter Nagourney (and you're not missing much): "Best outcome for Democrats: Win ... Worst outcome for Republicans: Losing ...."** ...

**--Those are direct quotes. I am not aware of all internet traditions. ... 3:46 P.M.

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This is not the market share we paid for: After a big ad campaign, General Motors gets an estimated 21% market share in October. Edmunds.com had predicted 22.4%. Kf analysts not impressed, await scathing TTAC take-apart. .. Update: TTAC punts to its readers, who note a) GM achieved this market share with lots of "incentives" (i.e. price cuts); b) GM introduced several new models, which is a good thing--but new models often produce a sales spike that evaporates within a few months. ... Bailout II still on track. ... 3:22 P.M.

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