Health Care Speech: Obama doesn't need to get " Republicans on board ." He doesn't need to get Blue Dog  Democrats on board. He needs to get voters on board.  They aren't on board now --39-37 against, according to Gallup.  (When Congress passed Medicare in 1965, by way of contrast, Gallup found a 63-28 majority in favor .) ... If the Dems' health care bill were actually popular, all the vote-bargaining problems they now face would be easily solved. If the bill remains relatively unpopular, with those opposed much more likely to base their vote on the issue, it could easily fail to pass even if versions of it get past the House and Senate and into a conference committee. ... Remember "comprehensive immigration reform"? In 2007, it seemed as if every month or two the New York Times would announce a breakthrough "deal" among press-anointed power brokers--a deal that was said to virtually guarantee passage. But, faced with constituent disapproval, skittish Senators didn't want to vote for it, no matter what they said in public. And somehow it bogged down short of passage. Funny how that happens. ...

Update: My Slate colleague Timothy Noah says more or less exactly the opposite :

The constituency that Obama should be worrying about right now isn't the defining-moment-loving press or the Republican-wary public. It's the risk-averse Democratic Congress ..

Hmm. What's that risk the Democrats are all averse about? Isn't it the risk of getting voted out of office by a disapproving public? ... Yikes: AP poll released Wednesday finds 49-34 against . Nothing to worry about there!. ...

P.S.:  Noah and I agree  Obama's big-deal speech is a mistake-- Noah because thinks it's unnecessary to try to win over the public with "the same case for health reform that [Obama]'s been making for six months," me because I think making "the same case for health reform that [Obama]'s been making for six months" won't work in winning over the public (and when it doesn't, he won't be able to give another address to Congress anytime soon). ... The speech is a mistake even if Dems now have the votes to pass bills out of both houses of Congress , and the whole thing is wired to make it look as if Obama's address broke the log jam . If the polls don't flip, there will be plenty of opportunities for the bill to grind to a halt later, like a truck in the sand. ...

Backfill : I thought this post seemed a little ... Gergenesque . So be it! ...  4:38 P.M.

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