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How Game of Thrones’ Daenerys Can Brace for Cersei’s Treachery

Dany, you in danger, girl.

HBO

Even when Cersei Lannister is pulling a long con, she’s myopic—but damned if she isn’t brilliant in her myopia. Game of Thrones’ season finale saw the Red Keep’s black queen gamble on “the monsters” annihilating each other. At first glance, she seemed to have gone madder than the Mad King. But Cersei’s chicanery has logic that could keep her on the Iron Throne. Too bad Daenerys will soon have intel that could nullify Cersei’s every move.

We’ve all known Euron was a character, but he should be renowned for his skills as an improv actor. Presumably he and Cersei planned for him to ferry the Golden Company from Essos to Westeros before the finale’s fateful dragon pit meeting. They might have even planned for him to find an excuse to storm out publicly, thus providing cover to his movements. But Euron’s split-second decision to use the wight’s appearance as an excuse to legitimately trick everyone into believing the Ironborn’s most famous cutthroat had turned coward was brilliant. Until, that is, Jaime screwed it all up for Cersei.

Cersei claims that she’s secured 20,000 of the Golden Company’s men, horses and elephants. Although that’s relatively few men—House Tyrell and their bannermen had 80–100,000 during the war of the Five Kings, for example—they could be a major asset. But in securing them, she alienated her closest ally in a chilling scene that made Jaime’s death seem convincingly nigh.

As far as his self-interest is concerned, Jaime is a compassionate moron. He forsook his family’s legacy to protect the Mad King. He became the kingslayer to prevent needless murder. He supported Cersei as she became ever more cold, McCarthyite, and bellicose. He probably still loves her—which will make it painful when he kills another mad ruler.

Nevertheless, if he wants to fight the Walkers, he has one option: head north and conscript with either Dany or Jon Snow. He believes that “If the dead win, they march south, and kill us all.” His best chance to see that they don’t is spoiling Cersei’s secret plan.

If Jaime doesn’t, Theon Greyjoy might. It’s a long way for Theon and co. to get back to the Iron Islands, but given the way the show has treated travel times, it wouldn’t be shocking if Theon is the one who informs Dany that Euron isn’t where he’s supposed to be.

Once Dany finds out, she could instruct Varys, who has spies in Essos, to keep tabs on when and where from the Iron Fleet is leaving. Essos doesn’t use ravens, so any update would reach her by boat, likely not long before the fleet arrives. Still, she’d have enough time to send scouts to watch for Euron’s return, and to prep her dragons.

If the Golden Company and Euron make it back to Westeros, it could mean a clean victory for Cersei. Upon arrival, she could easily instruct them, alongside civilians and their elephants, to harvest logs from a swath of the Kingswood—while she outfits their ships with ballistas galore. They’d ferry the wood, soldiers, and animals up the rivers that run to the north, by Kingsroad.

That entire area, where the river splits into three forks and the road winds to the north, is a natural pinch point, between a mountain range. The company could dig staggered rows of V-shaped ditches, lined with outward-facing pikes—made from the wood they harvested—on their inside edge and filled with brush, tar, and wildfire. The Iron Fleet and its flaming catapults could park along the rivers after destroying the bridges crossing them. Even wights would have to cross a pinch point of hellfire and open water. And even though this might spread Cersei’s forces somewhat thin, by holding Ellaria hostage and offering Dorne the newly vacant Highgarden, she might be able to convince whoever is leading Dorne to side with her.

This is Cersei’s best shot, but it might not be enough. Dany has something Cersei desperately needs: better intel. Cersei knows about wights, but little about White Walkers. She wouldn’t anticipate that the Night King would freeze the river, which could allow wights to board the Ironborn ships. She’d be the last to know that he has a dragon, and wouldn’t think to arm her ballista with anti-undead-Viserion dragonglass javelins.

Most importantly, Dany will soon know Cersei’s backup is coming. Once her scouts inform her that the Iron Fleet is nearing Westeros, she and her dragons, under cover of darkness, could strafe the command ship and few dozen others, leaving the Ironborn leaderless. They might then be more inclined to flee to the islands after delivering what’s left of the Golden Company.

Conversely, she could pick up Theon, and however many Ironborn Drogon can carry. At night, she could come in from a high altitude and quickly strafe the dozen ships nearest the command vessel. Landing on the command ship, Theon and co. could disembark and make the case for mutinying against Euron rather than burning alive—and either killing the Golden Company, or unloading them at King’s Landing and hightailing it.

Before this, however, she should send an emissary to Dorne to make the case that Cersei would only kill her hostage, Ellaria, as a last resort. Whether Cersei does or not, Dany’s emissary can promise revenge and Highgarden for House Martell. Whoever is leading Dorne should welcome the opportunity help kill some Lannisters—or at least to travel north and see the enemy Dany is fighting for themselves.

As soon as word reaches Jon or Dany that the wall has collapsed—whether via Bran or a wounded, horse-riding Tormund—they’ll know that the army will likely take the Kingsroad to Winterfell. The man who knows nothing (particularly how to lie!) could have ballistas built, barriers and ditches of flammable material placed on a pinch point in the forested road. When the wights come, they’ll be greeted with a slow trudge through a hellfire of flaming arrows. With Jonaerys’ forces spread throughout the forest, the Night King will have limited visibility. If undead Viseryion was indeed spewing blue flames in the last episode, the Night King couldn’t fire recklessly without wasting his own army.

The flaming arrows and ballista javelins could determine whether the undead Viseryion is a flammable wight or a White Walker. If he’s the former, Dany has enough firepower to roast him—since the Night King doesn’t carry his javelin while riding—out of the range of his lieutenant’s throwing range. If he is a Walker, then he could be lured into range of dragonglass-tipped ballistas.

But before the final battle, Dany and Jon would of course have one more item to attend to: announcing a plan to get married … to the Iron Bank. The bank is backing Cersei for now, but if Dany and Jon can cripple the Iron Fleet (and possibly eliminate the Golden Company) or secure Dorne’s assistance—and promise a stable alliance through marriage, the Bank would be a fool not to hedge their bets and send a pre-wedding gift to Westeros’ new power couple.