The nominees that serve as the second-most helpful predictors for the Oscars’ Best Picture race were announced today. They are the Producers Guild of America Award nominations: Since No Country for Old Men in 2007, the PGA has chosen the same movie that the academy has gone on to select as its big winner every single year. (The PGA had its first-ever tie last year, between Gravity and eventual Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave.) Going back to its first winner, Driving Miss Daisy, the PGA has chosen the same movie as the academy more often than not—and this isn’t entirely surprising, since there is overlap in membership between the two organizations.
Which means that this year’s PGA award nominees will most likely give us our Best Picture winner. And most of the familiar names are on there: Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game. But one is noticeably absent: Selma. Despite widespread acclaim for director Ava DuVernay and star David Oyelowo, the film has had a bumpy road this awards season, hampered most recently by claims against its historical accuracy. Selma could still wind up on the shortlist for Best Picture, sure—but its chances just took a hit. (Only one movie, Braveheart, has failed to score a PGA Award nomination and gone on to win Best Picture.)
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Foxcatcher, and Gone Girl, meanwhile, have all just gotten a boost. Despite their peripheral standings throughout much of the awards season thus far, none of them can be counted out for a Best Picture slot just yet.
Check out the full list of nominees below. The awards will be presented Jan. 24.
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
American Sniper
Producers: Bradley Cooper, Clint Eastwood, Andrew Lazar, Robert Lorenz, Peter Morgan
Birdman
Producers: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole
Boyhood
Producers: Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland,
Foxcatcher
Producers: Megan Ellison, Jon Kilik, Bennett Miller
Gone Girl
Producer: Ceán Chaffin
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Producers: Wes Anderson & Scott Rudin, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales
The Imitation Game
Producers: Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman
Nightcrawler
Producers: Jennifer Fox, Tony Gilroy
The Theory of Everything
Producers: Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten
Whiplash
Producers: Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Big Hero 6
Producer: Roy Conli
The Book of Life
Producers: Brad Booker, Guillermo del Toro
The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Producers: David Bleiman Ichioka, Travis Knight
How To Train Your Dragon 2 (20th Century Fox)
Producer: Bonnie Arnold
The LEGO Movie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Producer: Dan Lin
