At his teary-eyed press conference Monday afternoon, Rep. Anthony Weiner said he wouldn't resign. But if the confessional-style presser was meant to give Weiner the last word, it's done anything but. With increasingly embarrassing revelations emerging about the congressman's extramarital sext-life, will Weiner reconsider his pledge to stay in office? Traders on the online prediction market Intrade were giving Weiner a 45 percent chance of resigning before the end of September, when Browbeat checked around 4 p.m. Tuesday. What's 45 percent look like in context? According to other Intrade markets, the probability of Weiner resigning is:
- A little more than half the chance that Dominique Strauss-Kahn will be guilty of at least one charge against him (80%).
- Two-thirds the chance that Muammar Qaddafi won't be Libya's leader by the end of the year (67%).
- About the same chance that the Freedom Tower will open by the end of 2013 (45%).
- Only slightly more likely than Apple selling at least 30 million iPads in the 2011 fiscal year (42%).
- Fifty percent more likely than Mitt Romney winning the GOP 2012 presidential nomination (30%).
- Forty-five times more likely than Newt Gingrich being elected president in 2012 (1%).
But markets fluctuate, and Intrade's predicted chance of Weiner's resignation has already risen several times today. What odds do you give it?
TODAY IN SLATE
The Right Target
Why Obama’s airstrikes against ISIS may be more effective than people expect.
The One National Holiday Republicans Hope You Forget
It’s Legal for Obama to Bomb Syria Because He Says It Is
I Stand With Emma Watson on Women’s Rights
Even though I know I’m going to get flak for it.
Should You Recline Your Seat? Two Economists Weigh In.
It Is Very, Very Stupid to Compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice
Or, why it is very, very stupid to compare Hope Solo to Ray Rice.
- School District Wants to Censor American History Curriculum to Make It More Patriotic
- U.S. Federal Prison Population Drops for the First Time in Decades
- Conservative Star D’Souza Avoids Jail Time for Illegal Campaign Contributions
- Moderate Chinese Intellectual Sentenced to Life in Prison After Show Trial
In Defense of HR
Startups and small businesses shouldn’t skip over a human resources department.