The XX Factor: What women really think.

Lady in Red, and Questions of Momentum

Hanna, I had the same question about whether there was a secret Neiman Marcus store available for political women after watching the State of the Union speech: That night, all the Washington ladies--including Hillary, no aspiring first lady there--were wearing the same shade of fire-engine red. I'm sure part of the point is to help the camera find you. But it looked like the doings of a sly Oscar Wildean fashion consultant, slumming around behind their backs and telling each one of them, "You should really wear more red." (Melinda, how much do you know about your red-counseling astrologer?)

On the speeches last night: I actually thought neither Hillary nor Barack was at their best, but it almost didn't matter, since there was just so much energy in the rooms around them. Meanwhile, since I'm alone out here in Texas, I'm dying to know what my fellow XXFactorites (XXFactorettes? Yikes!) make of the narrative of Obama and "momentum." The conventional wisdom last night on CNN and NPR was that Obama could win in two ways: one, by accumulating enough sheer delegate-count and, more likely, 2) by gaining enough "momentum." Today's conventional wisdom seems to be split on whether last night offered a display of Obama "momentum" or not. Kevin Drum thinks not. I, frankly, can't tell.

Two Cheers For Dithering

I feel sort of sorry for the Republicans today as they face the end of their interlude of disarray. And I can't share the editorialists' dour view of the bruising fight ahead for the Democrats, whose race is still so unsettled. Here's to continued dithering! Like Meghan yesterday, writing from Texas, and Anne from Poland, what I'm fascinated by, and totally in step with, is the mood of indecision and unpredictability. Lots of people headed into the voting booth not sure which way they'd go: That's what I heard, too, from family and friends in the Northeast. And it's not just mushy Democrats who are still wavering, but evangelicals as well, hardly your waffling type. Take a look at the astonishing Barna Group study Hanna cited yesterday, and what's really striking is that so many evangelicals--the subset of born-again Christians who are really conservative (believe that everything the Bible asserts is true, that God is perfect and all-knowing, etc.)--haven't made up their minds, either: "a whopping 40%," as the study puts it, are still undecided (with 45 percent ready to support the Republican nominee, and 11 percent the Democratic contender). And this from a voting bloc that has until now seemed made of granite: 85 percent of evangelicals voted Republican in 2004. So many ditherers on all sides don't seem to add up to an embattled nation, entrenched in polarized camps. We're baffling the pollsters. Who knows, maybe we can surprise ourselves, too.

Wish I Looked That Scary

Change Is Good. Polls Are Caca.

1) Change is good: The single most unambiguous piece of information to come out of last night is that Democrats see the promise of change as way more important than the value of experience—52 percent to 23 percent said it was the No. 1 thing they were looking for in a candidate. And since in '08 shorthand Obama equals change and Clinton equals experience, this can only be good news for him; the candidate who wins the argument about what the election is over generally wins the election. (Only "generally'' may no longer apply, which leads us to our second lesson.)

2) Polls are caca, and all the rules have been suspended. Even more than has been generally acknowledged, this race is so fluid and voters so volatile that pollsters can't seem to keep up, and known patterns seem not to apply. The good in this is that it challenges some of our laziest assumptions and silliest stereotypes like ...

3) Conservatives are sheep who go bah, bah, bah all the way home. Not true, and I don't think it's so much that conservative talk radio has lost its influence as that it never had the authority to issue edicts in the first place; when Rush and Laura and Sean reflect conservative opinion, they do magnify it, but when they don't, voters seem to have no trouble dissenting.

4) Women across the ideological spectrum look great in red. Nah, scratch that one; Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama look good in anything. And on that positive note, one day down, 39 to go.

Super Dienstag From Berlin

To return to a previous point: Meghan, at least you're in North America! To watch this particular primary race from Europe has been a distinctly odd experience. On the one hand, it's fantasically frustrating, almost homesick-making, to be so far away when American politics (finally!) have produced an election as gripping as this one. On the other hand, it's nice to be so popular: Suddenly, Americans are the most envied nationality in the room. After all, we have real politics! We have unpredictable voters! We have black candidates, female candidates, war heroes, evangelicals, Mormons! Everyone wants to know who will win, and nobody believes us when we say we have absolutely no idea. If you hold an American passport, you must have inside information.

Above all, it's the unexpectedness, the defiance of the opinion polls that Europeans seem to admire, almost to the point of jealousy. Which makes me wonder whether the traditional criticism of U.S. electoral coverage—too much horse race, not enough substance—isn't somewhat off. People love following a horse race, as long as it's a real horse race, and not a jumped-up and essentially boring contest between two equally flawed candidates (i.e., 2004). People love watching candidates actually trying hard to win.

Clearly, a primary like this one, staged every four years, would do a lot more for "democracy promotion" and American public diplomacy than a thousand earmarks' worth of Congressional funding. You want to make democracy appealing to the Russians or the Iranians? Remind them that a good election is a lot of fun! I'm beginning to wonder if it isn't really that simple.

Super Tuesday From Texas

The Porn Stars' Guide to Super Tuesday

FunnyorDie.com, the online video site from Will Ferrell that brought us “The Landlord” last year, has posted a two-minute video called “Porn Star Politics” (see it here). It opens with porn stars at a convention awkwardly reading a script explaining the importance of Super Tuesday—line delivery is not these women’s specialty—and includes the adult entertainers’ own picks for the presidency. A woman in a bikini top is very eager to vote for Hillary Clinton: “She was actually the one running the country how many years ago? So, it’s like, she did it then, she can do it now,” she notes. Mary Carey, porn star, Celebrity Rehab patient, and former candidate for California governor, also makes a quick cameo.

The video seems to aim to get us to laugh at the ditzy porn stars’ limited political knowledge. A giggly woman enthusiastically says that she’s going to vote “liberal.” “I don’t even know who’s up for election,” another says in a flat voice before making some rather strange comments about Barack Obama. The shots of heavily made-up and scantily-clad women are juxtaposed with iconic American images. On paper, it sounds sort of funny—let’s laugh at the dumb porn stars. But somehow, it just feels like a cheap shot. Perhaps I’d be more inclined to enjoy it if it featured some male performers, too. But the only guy to make an appearance is wearing a leather mask and threatening to spank Hillary Clinton. Come on, Will Ferrell. I want to laugh at dumb male porn stars, too.