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All I can say is, the women in my book are looking smarter by the minute. Though the favored narrative -- that it's women voters who make President Hillary a slam-dunk inevitability -- is still so entrenched that it wasn't so easy to locate the news that Iowa women actually favored Obama in today's Washington Post. Oddly, even their graphic broke out the percentage of women and men who supported each of the Republican candidates, but not the Democrats.
Obama prevailed last night not because we're more ready for an African-American than for a woman in the White House, but because he is striking chords about the hoped-for future that resonate in ways that her theme song --- "Don't Stop (Thinking about the '90s)" -- does not. And even if they agree on nothing, in tone and pitch I see a lot of similarities between Obama and last night's GOP winner, Mike Huckabee. As does a friend of mine who lives in Ames, Iowa, and caucused for Obama. Her report seems on the money:
One aspect of the whole experience that confirmed my choice was the speeches given by the candidates afterwards. Edwards was very fiery and compelling, but he still was saying the same exact things I'd heard him say at town meetings. He just repackaged his script. Still, I give him credit for championing his causes over the status of his candidacy. Hillary, on the other hand, was all about 'I, I, I.' For the first time, I realized that when she is not parsing the specifics of policy issues, she is talking about herself: her accomplishments, her expertise, her experience. It may be good to know these things, but they do nothing to inspire the electorate. In effect, she doesn't convey a vision for the future. She just touts a knowledge base that has evolved over the years. So when, in turn, Obama speaks as a visionary who will unite the country using the politics of inclusion, it really is music to the ears. He has that rare ability to actually inspire people, and that is why he won.
Huckabee showed a similar charisma in his speech. I know that he has an uphill battle ahead of him and he may not succeed, and I disagree with him on just about every topic, but given who he is, I thought he gave an amazing speech. I wanted to hug him and say, "If only you weren't so daffy in so many ways and didn't take such oddball positions on things, I'd like to be your friend!"
The "I wanted to hug him'' factor should never be underestimated. And though Hillary is in no way out of contention now, her plan of attack -- to attack Barack -- is only another confirmation that her playbook is perfect for the last war.
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So, the big GOP winner in Iowa was Mike Huckabee. Not surprising, considering the polls, but that hasn't stopped the hysteria. Andrew Sullivan last night seemed almost giddy that he'd forseen the surrender of the GOP to the Christianist right, and in the New York Times, David Brooks put Huckabee's victory on par with Obama's for the Democrats as a "political earthquake. "
Forgive me, but I can't get that worked up about Huckabee, though I have no wish for him to win the GOP nomination. For one, the evangelical turnout in Iowa was huge. About 60 percent of Iowa's GOP caucus-goers identified as evangelical and half voted for the former governor; in the general population, 26 percent of Americans are evangelical. New Hampshire is just a few days away, and if Huckabee's victory helped anyone, it was John McCain. If McCain wins New Hampshire, that could give him enough momentum to weather a Huckabee victory in South Carolina and hang on for Super Tuesday.
And what if it came down to a race between Obama and McCain? They'd be two refreshing candidates, largely untainted by scandal, whom their respective parties could rally around positively rather than spending six months tearing down the other guy. I can't help but think that would be an OK thing for this country.
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