The XX Factor: What women really think.

Polls and Palin

A guest post from Slate's and The Big Money's Jim Ledbetter:

The Sarah Palin narrative is incomplete and will likely remain so even after her speech tonight. Nonetheless, I perceive a nagging gap between the way the media is so far discussing her candidacy and the way that polls indicate it is being received. Palin IS interesting to women and even appealing; as "XX Factor" noted yesterday, women are discussing her and her family and her situation with great vigor and energy. The media is making legitimate efforts to capture those conversations, dissect, and analyze them. But there is next to no evidence that this interest translates into increased female support for the GOP ticket. Quite the opposite, per Rasmussen Reports:

If McCain's strategy was to reach out to women voters, however, thus far it hasn't been successful. The night after the announcement, slightly more women voters viewed Palin as the right choice for McCain's running mate, but now 41% say she was not, versus 36% who still believe she was a good choice. Forty-one percent (41%) of women say they are less likely now to vote for McCain because of Palin, as opposed to 31% who say they are more likely to support him. Women voters were essentially even on this question in the earlier survey.

 

Men still back McCain's decision. Forty-one percent (41%) say she was the right choice, while 37% disagree. Earlier, men favored the decision by a 43% to 31% margin. Forty-three percent (43%) of men voters say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his choosing of Palin as a running mate, but 34% say they are less likely to do so. This is a jump in support from the earlier survey. But even a plurality of men (47%) say Palin is not ready to be president in the event of the 72-year-old McCain being incapacitated while in the White House, although 32% believe she is ready. Women voters by a nearly two-to-one margin believe Palin is not ready.

Now, ok, a sizable portion of both men and women are unsure, and all these numbers are subject to change. Still, I find it staggering that two out of three women say Palin is unqualified to be president, and that more women say the choice of Palin makes them LESS likely to vote for McCain, while more men say it makes them MORE likely. Three conclusions from this: 1) As Ann Hulbert and others have argued, the Palin choice may well have been aimed at conservative men, who find that she shores up the ticket's "values" credential. 2) There is a big difference between women talking about Palin—even admiring her—and women's desire to vote Republican. 3) The media in general has yet to figure out how to frame stories involving a nationwide female candidate whose chief political appeal seems to be to men.