The XX Factor: What women really think.

Queenmakers

The story line tonight is a familiar one. Hillary Clinton built her victories in Nevada and New Hampshire on women, older voters, and voters who make less than $50,000 a year (and in Nevada, Latinos). Tonight, she appears to have leads with some or all of those groups in the states she has won: Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Tennessee. According to early exit polls—and they're early, so the precise numbers could change—she is up among women in each of these states, and others, by at least 15 points. OK, New York doesn't count, because it's her home state. But in all the states that have been called so far for which there is exit polling, it looks as if women were a hefty majority of voters overall—as much as 57 or 58 percent. Obama may have won by a small margin among men in New Jersey, but not by enough to overcome the Women for Hillary numbers. Clinton also won most of the Latinos in New Jersey and most of the older voters (age 65 and older) in all the early states except Illinois. These categories look like big, fat Clinton leads. The split among people who earn less than $50,000 a year is a bit closer. But Hillary also looks to be far ahead among people who have not gone to college. Meanwhile, Obama is well ahead with independents (with the probable exception of Massachusetts) and hugely with black voters. He is also generally up with people under 30, people who went to college, and the earners of $50,000 or more a year. That's true not just in the states he has won so far—Georgia, Delaware, Alabama, Illinois—but in the others as well.

What to make of this? The voting blocs are holding steady.The majority of each group knows what it likes, and it's not being swayed by the ongoing campaigning. And as women outvote men, they go a long way toward carrying Hillary. If they give her California later tonight, despite the Maria Shriver/Caroline Kennedy/Oprah Winfrey juggernaut, that's, well, a big blow for Obama. We are queenmakers, it seems. Except, of course, for that far less definitive delegate count.