The XX Factor: Slate women blog about politics, etc...

The South Carolina Divides

I am also ready for Bill Clinton to sit down. But it's worth pointing out that among white women in South Carolina, Bill disaffection—or whatever turned women away from Hillary—seemed to produced a boost for Edwards rather than for Obama. You're right, Dahlia, that Obama won 53 percent of women over all, which is the first time he has cracked 50 percent. But that was because he won 79 percent of black women (who made up one-third of the total electorate). Hillary won 44 percent of white women—a lower number than her overall support among women in Iowa or New Hampshire—Edwards won 34 percent (higher than Iowa and New Hampshire), and Obama won only 22 percent (lower).

I hate to carp on these divisions, but they're too big to ignore. There's a divide among men, too, and it's almost as wide, just with positions one and two reversed: Edwards got 43 percent of white men, Clinton 29 percent, and Obama 27 percent. Meanwhile, Obama got 82 percent of black men. What, if anything, could alter all the individual calculuses that's causing this heavy identity politics? Or does it all not matter, because all these groups of Democrats will support the eventual nominee in adequate numbers, and it's naive to think that in a primary in which the candidates agree on most of the big issues, people won't be inclined to vote for the one who looks like they do?