The XX Factor: Slate women blog about politics, etc...

Overselling Reason

With all this confusing chatter about Iowa polling numbers (seems like every poll says something different, except when you account for the margin of error, in which case they all say the same thing: "Who knows!"), I think it's worth pointing out that many voters don't vote with their heads or their hearts, but on impulse. We've all heard the "I voted for him because I'd have a beer with him argument," and here's some more food for thought: according to a study published in Science magazine "inferences of competence based solely on facial appearance predicted the outcome of U.S. congressional elections better than chance (e.g. 68.8% of the Senate races in 2004)." The subjects had no previous knowledge of the candidates, and based their predictions solely on a 1-second exposure to a photograph. I don't think the study proves that people don't give a damn about the issues, but it certainly suggests that unreflective, knee-jerk reactions influence political races more than we'd like.