The XX Factor: Slate women blog about politics, etc...

Deterrence Unplugged

Melinda, I think your instinct about the deterrent effect of the death penalty is about the same as mine. The Liptak article is incredibly interesting but makes the same point I learned in law school: Deterrence works if there is a reasonable chance the punishment in question will actually happen. Even my kids know that if they only get in trouble one time out of every 10,000 times they crayon the walls, it's totally worthwhile to take a chance and crayon the walls. We currently execute only a few dozen people a year.

But even if it were proved that the death penalty served as a terrific deterrent, it wouldn’t solve for the other fundamental problem: We don’t kill the worst offenders—we mainly kill only the most unlucky ones (the guys lumped with sleepy counsel, mixed-up DNA, tough-on-crime judges). Here’s a great new piece by Stuart Taylor on the recent decline of the death penalty that ties some of that together. For something to be a true deterrent, it needs to be understood to work. Even a rationally acting drunk killer on a spree can hardly game the odds of a capital punishment system that seems to punish indiscriminately.