Trailhead : Kingmakers

Kingmakers: Dennis Kucinich

Chadwick Matlin — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 22:08:00 GMT

The Peace Train has pulled into Obama station-temporarily. Dennis Kucinich has endorsed Barack Obama in the Iowa caucuses, but only if he's declared unviable.

We've been advising fringe-minded Iowa causcusgoers how to vote if their first-choice is declared unviable at their caucus meeting. (See advice for Biden and Richardson supporters.) But Kucinich's endorsement of Obama seems to go against his platform. He acknowledged as much in a press release, but said, "Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change." Issues-wise, here's why Kucinich is supporting the wrong mainstreamer:

Health care: Kucinich wants a single-payer, universal health care system. We're talking tax-funded, government-administered, mandates-aren't-necessary-because-it's-automatic health care. Kucinich is such a pinko on health care that Michael Moore endorsed his plan.

Obama, meanwhile, has a plan that's been derided by lefties as being too conservative. Adults aren't even mandated to get health care, so either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards deserves his health-care focused constituency. But even Kucinich says all their plans suck.

Trade: While Obama says the usual NAFTA-is-a-no-no talk, he voted for a free trade deal with Peru (as did Clinton). John Edwards is the only one of the Big Three to come close to jiving with Kucinich's lefty trade talk.

Iraq (PDF): Bill Richardson really deserves the support here, but he isn't guaranteed viability, either. Given that, Kucinich and Obama do share some similarities on Iraq. They didn't want it to happen in the first place and they've voted against funding it in the future. So, on the war, Kucinich's support of Obama seems defensible.

It's important to note that Iowans don't vote for Dennis Kucinich. He pulled in 1.3 percent of the primary vote in 2004 (some of his support went to the (relatively) more electable Howard Dean, another anti-war candidate). The latest Des Moines Register poll shows he's pulling in one percent this year, as well. A state that nicknames its residents the Hawkeyes seems inherently opposed to the Department of Peace.

Kingmakers: Joe Biden

Chadwick Matlin — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 23:00:00 GMT

In case you haven't heard, the Democratic caucuses in Iowa aren't exactly a microcosm of American democracy. Secret ballots are unheard of, candidates bribe voters with sandwiches, and second choices aren't just allowed, they're sometimes requested.

On Thursday night many supporters of Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Joe Biden won't be allowed to vote for their candidate. Democratic caucus rules say that any candidate who doesn't pull in 15 percent of the vote at the local caucus meeting isn't "viable," so their supporters must pick another candidate if they want their vote to count. Let's hear it for the democratic process!

Given that, we thought we'd put together a helpful guide for second-tier supporters when they have to shift allegiances. (Richardson supporters can find advice here.) Here’s a rundown on which candidates most closely share Biden's positions (just in case supporters lose their Mo-Joe):

Pakistan: Somehow, John Edwards has been getting rave reviews for his handling of post-Bhutto Pakistan, but picking up the phone when Pervez Musharraf calls doesn't make you an expert. Hillary Clinton seems like she could be a nice fit, with her competency and experience, but Barack Obama is the winner. Even though Biden was annoyed when Obama aped Biden's stance on attacking al-Qaida in Pakistan, the plans still resemble each other.

Iraq: Biden's three-part soft-partition plan is considered the gold-standard among Democrats, which means any of the Big Three are a step backward. This one's a wash.

Health care: Biden's plan doesn’t call for mandatory universal care, but it does make health care accessible to all children. It's far from all of the top Democrats, but it's closest to Obama's since there isn't a mandate for adults.

Resume: If Bill Richardson were polling higher, we'd give him the nod. But since he's unlikely to top the 15 percent threshold in most precincts, Clinton gets the edge. Not because of her White House experience, but because she's the only two-term senator among the top Dems.

There isn't an easy second-choice candidate for Biden supporters. His appeal comes from his foreign affairs expertise and his no-nonsense attitude. In many ways, Biden supporters would probably find a home with John McCain more than any other candidate. That says more about the Democratic front-runners than it does about McCain.

Kingmakers: Bill Richardson

Chadwick Matlin — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 18:20:00 GMT

Because the Democratic Iowa caucuses are as outdated as Alan Keyes, they're governed by rules that don't jive with the rest of American democracy. Most offensive is the stipulation that voters can support a second choice candidate if their first choice doesn't get 15 percent at their local caucus. It's like an elementary-school recess nightmare, where you're forced to hang out with the popular kids you hate.

This means that in many caucuses, supporters of Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich are going to throw their weight behind one of the Big Three. It's these votes that may make the difference in the final tally.

With that in mind, here's a closer look at who Richardson supporters should pick as their second choice, based on Richardson's major policies.

Iraq: Richardson supports an immediate withdrawal, even if it means no residual forces. Ron Paul fits this description better than any of the Big Three, but John Edwards wants to pull the most troops out the quickest, so he gets the nod.

Immigration: The candidates largely share the same vision on immigration, but a flashback to Hillary Clinton's driver's license flap is instructive. Richardson and Barack Obama both supported New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Clinton infamously couldn't decide (and then did), and Edwards hedged his answer. Obama, despite a confusing response during a debate, is closest to Richardson here.

Health care: Nobody really seems all that impressed with Bill Richardson's health-care plan, including himself. So, this one's a wash.

Résumé: There isn't a candidate in the Big Three who can match Richardson's devotion to public service. Clinton narrowly edges Obama because Richardson's experience lies in hard power diplomacy, not the soft power Obama markets.

Tone: Richardson has rushed to Clinton's aid throughout the campaign, fueling rumors of a vice presidential nod.

Richardson is running a more national campaign than any of his second-tier colleagues, so he tends to be a forgotten cog in the caucus wheel. But he's polling at an average of eight percent in the Hawkeye State. Those votes have to go towards somebody on caucus night, and they probably won't be allowed to go towards Richardson. Clinton-Richardson '08?