Trailhead: A campaign blog.

No Reverse Coattails in Virginia

Early returns from Virginia are not encouraging for those who are hoping that Democrat Mark Warner's popularity in the state can push Obama over the top as well. Some had hoped that Warner, who is running for the Senate against fellow former governor Jim Gilmore, would produce a "reverse coattails" effect, attracting voters who support him to vote for the other Democrats on the ticket as well.

With 10 percent of precincts reporting at a few minutes before eight, however, it appears Virginians are more than willing to split the ticket. Obama trails McCain 43-56, while Warner leads Gilmore 57-41, prompting MSNBC to call the race for him. Students of Virginia politics will not find this terribly surprising; in recent years the state has rarely had a governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general of the same party, even though all three offices are elected independently of one another on the same ballot every four years.

Governors Five Games Over .500

Barack Obama’s win in Virginia is a small victory for Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine, who was the second governor in the country to endorse Obama. Kaine announced his support for Obama nearly a year ago, when the junior senator from Illinois gave the keynote address at the state party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond, Va.

The two men are fond of pointing out their odd similarities. Both went to Harvard Law School—as did both of their wives—though the two men missed each other by five years. On a stranger note, both of their mothers hail from El Dorado, Kan., population 12,000. Obama also campaigned for Kaine in his 2005 gubernatorial bid.

This win gives endorsing governors a nine-and-four record in the Democratic primary, according to the tally of superdelegates at the Democratic Convention Watch. (Our count does not include Iowa Gov. Chet Culver’s endorsement of Obama, which he announced after the caucuses.) Should Obama win Maryland tonight, as he is expected to do, this would make governors nine-and-five, as Martin O’Malley has endorsed Clinton.

Virginia used to be overlooked in presidential elections—one of those states that the cable news stations would color in red the moment the polls closed. But the last three statewide elections have gone to Democrats, and Kaine insists that the state will be in play for the Democrats in the general election whether Obama is the nominee or not.