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The Popular-Vote Death Knell [Updated]

Right now, Clinton’s best shot at winning the nomination is to overtake Obama in the popular vote. But Obama’s strong North Carolina win could kill Clinton’s chances of winning that metric.

Obama currently leads Clinton by about 650,000 votes. (Real Clear Politics is heroically updating its popular-vote tally as tonight’s results roll in.) That lead is cut waaay down to about 85,000 if you count the Florida and Michigan votes, which Clinton hopes we do. At the beginning of tonight, Clinton appeared to be within striking distance—wins in North Carolina and Indiana, plus in the remaining states, could have narrowed that gap significantly.

But look at the size of the two states: North Carolina has 115 pledged delegates at stake; Indiana has 72. It’s hard to gauge turnout, but predictions of 1 million-plus people going to the polls in Indiana don’t appear to be exaggerated. In North Carolina, almost 500,000 votes have been logged with only 15 percent of precincts reporting, which suggests massive turnout. (Not that precinct percentage is in any way proportional to voter turnout, but this is a rough guide.) So even if both Obama and Clinton win North Carolina and Indiana by similar margins, Obama will get a lot more delegates and votes out of it. But his margin appears to be much bigger than hers—about 14 points in North Carolina compared with about seven in Indiana, by one count—which will put him even further ahead in the popular vote.

If Clinton can’t win the popular vote, that means she won’t have a single metric to back up her claim to superdelegates that she deserves the nomination. (Obama has pledged delegates and number of contests, as well.) Without that, hers will be a tough case to make, no matter how many more dumb things the Rev. Wright says.

Update 11:29 p.m.: With 96 percent of precincts voting, Obama leads Clinton in North Carolina by 220,000 votes. With that, he erases her popular vote gains in Pennsylvania, where she netted 215,000 votes.

Hillary's Dream Scenario

As we’re waiting for the Hoosier/Cackalack results to come in, what better time to talk long-shot hypotheticals? Let's look at Hillary Clinton’s best-case scenario tonight and what it would mean for her campaign.

She wins Indiana by double digits and North Carolina by single digits. Not only will rural whites have shied from Obama in greater numbers than before, but blacks won’t have come to his rescue. "Why can’t Obama close the deal?" becomes not just a quip but a rallying cry. Demographic abandonment helps her make the case that Obama is weak and getting weaker.

She tightens his delegate lead. Right now Obama leads by 154 pledged delegates—his strongest case against her. There’s no plausible way she can close this gap, as the Obama campaign delights in pointing out. What she can do, though, is close his lead so far—say, to within 100 delegates—that a popular vote win could swing the tide in her favor.

She wins the popular vote. This seems unlikely, barring disaster in Obamaland. Clinton has Kentucky and West Virginia in her pocket, but it would take a real zeitgeist shift for Oregon and South Dakota to swing her way. But if they did, she’d be within striking distance of Obama’s current 610,000 vote lead. To overtake him, though, she still needs to make sure …

Florida and Michigan count. Clinton can’t overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count, even if she persuades the DNC to seat these two delegations. But getting their delegates seated gives her an excuse to count their combined 1.7 million votes toward the popular vote tally. Right now, counting these two states, Obama leads her only by 123,000. Combined with wins in the remaining contests, she could well surpass him.

She persuades superdelegates Obama can’t win. If the last four things happen, then Clinton might get the remaining superdelegates to support her in large numbers. (We’re talking 60 percent to 70 percent of the uncommitted superdelegates.) Those currently supporting Obama could defect, too. Her case in a nutshell: Sure, some metrics might be on his side. But nominating him would be like racing a horse with its legs pre-broken. And who knows what "October surprise" lies in store.