Friday, May 09, 2008 - Posts
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As part of her Superdelegate Reassurance Tour, Hillary Clinton today sent out a PowerPoint slide show measuring her performance in the 20 "tough districts" that went for Bush in 2004 but elected Democrats in 2006. She won 16 of them; Barack Obama won 4. The point being that Democrats need to win these districts in the fall and congressional candidates will need a strong top of the ticket.
The slide show then breaks down the districts’ demographics: Thirteen of the districts have more than the average proportion of seniors, Hispanics make up more than 10 percent of voters in four of them, and half of them are more than 40 percent rural.
But one thing the Clinton Power Point doesn’t point out: They’re also really, really white. Here’s the percentage of African-Americans in each of the 20 districts. Districts Obama won are in bold; the rest went for Clinton:
AZ-5: 2.8 %
AZ-8: 3.1 %
CA-11: 3.5 %
FL-16: 6.0 %
IN-2: 8.2 %
IN-8: 3.7 %
IN-9: 2.3 %
KS-2: 5.1 %
MN-1: 1.0 %
NC-11: 4.6 %
NH-1: 0.8 %
NY-19: 5.4 %
NY-24: 3.4 %
OH-18: 1.9 %
PA-10: 1.9 %
PA-4: 3.4 %
TX-22: 9.4 %
TX-23: 3.0 %
WI-8: 0.6 %
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Last week, we traced the New York Times editorial page’s growing disenchantment with Hillary Clinton, whom they endorsed back in February.
Today, the editorial board argues that Clinton has every right to stay in the race. “But …”
we believe just as strongly that Mrs. Clinton will be making a terrible mistake — for herself, her party and for the nation — if she continues to press her candidacy through negative campaigning with disturbing racial undertones. We believe it would also be a terrible mistake if she launches a fight over the disqualified delegations from Florida and Michigan.
In other words, she can stay in the race as long as she doesn’t use the only weapons she has left.
This is what will, I believe, turn the remaining superdelegates against Clinton. (Even after Tuesday, they’ve been hesitant to take sides.) The only weapons she has left are ugly ones. The race case, which Clinton articulated in an interview with USA Today (“Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again”), is a particularly yucky line of argument. Her point isn’t new; her phrasing is. And when it’s enough to turn off Joe Conason, you know the end is nigh.
Her other case, that Florida and Michigan must be seated, isn’t as bad as the Times suggests. There will certainly be heated negotiations over how to seat the delegates, but the Obama camp isn’t putting up as big a fight as before. The reason: If the DNC halves the votes of the Florida and Michigan delegations, as it likely will, Clinton still can’t catch up. She could claim that counting Florida and Michigan means she won the popular vote, but that's a shaky leg on which to rest your candidacy when Obama wasn't on the Michigan ballot.
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Ever since the Clinton campaign went on life support earlier this week, there’s been speculation that Barack Obama could persuade Hillary to drop out by promising to pay off her campaign debt. The Huffington Post’s Tom Edsall wrote that “it is not uncommon for winning presidential campaigns to pick up some or all of a competitor's debts and obligations, although the size of Clinton's debt and her personal loans to her campaign are unprecedented - somewhere over and above $20 million.” Meanwhile, diarists at DailyKos started hyperventilating that their Obama donations would be given to subsidize Clinton’s ailing campaign. Is their fear justified?
No it’s not. Obama can’t just “pay back” Clinton’s debt. FEC rules limit contributions from one candidate committee to another at $2000, according to FEC spokesman Bob Biersack. So even if Obama wanted to cut Hillary a $10 million check, he couldn’t. Nor could he route his money through the DNC, since national party committees can only give $5000 to a candidate committee.
What Obama can do is fundraise for her. Over the past year, Obama has established a formidable online fundraising apparatus that has raked in more than $240 million since the campaign began. If he called for supporters to chip in for Clinton, or set up a joint fundraising committee, he could probably drum up some cash. How much is unclear. Obama/Clinton relations remain icy, and many Obama supporters might hesitate to cut $2300 checks for the candidate they see as overstaying her welcome in order to weaken Obama against McCain. Plus, if small-bore donors have limited funds, they’re more likely to give Obama cash for the general than to get the multi-millionaire Clinton back on her feet.
Anyway, short story, any money Obama “gives” to Clinton has yet to be raised. Donors who have contribute to his campaign between now and when Clinton drops out shouldn't worry about their dollars replenishing Clinton's coffers.
Also check out Jacob Leibenluft's Explainer, "Can a Campaign Go Bankrupt?"
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