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The notion that Barack Obama has an insurmountable pledged delegate lead seems to have finally calcified. Check out this passage from today’s Wall Street Journal:
As of yesterday evening, Sen. Obama led Sen. Clinton 1,567 to 1,463 in the delegate count, according to the Associated Press, a gap that narrowed by only 12 delegates despite her wins Tuesday. Sen. Clinton can't close that gap in the handful of primaries left, but she could narrow it by winning over superdelegates, who account for 20% of the delegate total. That, in turn, could deprive Sen. Obama of an outright victory and delay a nomination until the party's August convention in Denver. [Emphasis added]
It’s true that Clinton is very, highly, extremely unlikely to close the pledged delegate gap. According to Slate’s Delegate Calculator, she would need to win 63 percent of the remaining pledged delegates just to tie it up. But this is the first time I’ve seen a newspaper essentially say it’s impossible. Both candidates have won by that margin before, and a lot can happen in seven weeks to turn the tide. That said, the point still stands that Clinton pretty much needs superdelegates to win.
The question now is, how close does Hillary need to come to call it a tie?
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Barack Obama's surrogates are really struggling these days. First Rep. Kirk Watson couldn’t name a single thing Obama has accomplished. Then economic adviser Austan Goolsbee gave the Canadian government the impression—inaccurately, he says—that they have nothing to fear from Obama’s NAFTA stance.
Now Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice goes and says that Hillary and Barack are “both not ready to have that 3 a.m. phone call.” Oops.
Around here, that’s what we call a Kinsley gaffe.
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At today's military photo-op/press conference, Hillary dropped this line, which seems to imply that John McCain is more prepared to be commander in chief than Barack Obama:
“And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” she said. “I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that, and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy.”
Seems oddly similar to Ann Coulter’s logic about why she would support Hillary: McCain would be so bad that she’d have to vote Democrat. Would Obama be so unqualified that Clinton would have to vote Republican?
It’s comments like this that could hypothetically hurt Obama in the general, should McCain seize on them. The attack ad: Not even Barack Obama’s own party thinks he’s qualified. Cue Hillary tape.
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For a while there, it looked like national security had been supplanted by health care and the economy at the top of the campaign priority. But now the pendulum is swinging back, with Iraq and Afghanistan returning to the fore. Or at least that’s what Hillary Clinton hopes is happening.
A few dozen journalists packed into a tiny room today in the Westin Hotel near Dupont Circle—“the size of a child’s bedroom,” quipped one reporter there—to watch Clinton discuss the “forgotten front line” in Afghanistan as a group of generals nodded in approval. Presumably the close quarters were chosen to lend it the air of a cabinet meeting or Joint Chiefs of Staff roundtable.
Clinton’s Afghanistan talking points were nothing new—increase international support there, improve security forces, crack down on narcotics—but her emphasis was. She differentiated between “ending the war in Iraq” and “winning the war in Afghanistan.” When it was his turn, former U.N. ambassador Richard Holbrooke made the case that Afghanistan is “much more important than Iraq” for the United States in the long term. It's a distinction that will become important against John McCain, who insists that both wars can still be won.
Like all great political stunts, this one accomplishes a few things at once. First, it uses the nomination of McCain to bring the conversation back to defense, where Clinton thinks she is stronger than Obama. And second, it turns the debate from Iraq—on which Obama can slam Clinton for voting to authorize the war—to Afghanistan, thus giving her another opportunity to ding Obama for not holding oversight hearings on Afghanistan as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on European Affairs.
No matter that the press conference didn’t offer any new information or answer any questions. (The admirals and generals might as well have been reading off index cards. Leadership, experience, Day 1. I'm surprised they didn't put a phone on the table and have it ring on cue.) The purpose was to shift the discussion. Mission accomplished.
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Last night, after Barack Obama won Vermont, we called on our loyal readers to help us name an Obama ice cream flavor. Ben & Jerry's is famous for such flavors as Cherry Garcia (named for the Deadhead), Phish Food (named for the Dead successors), and Americone Dream (named for the not-dead Stephen Colbert), and if Ben & Jerry's delivered a victory for Obama, then it should also honor him with a taste of his own.
Plenty of you responded with riffs on Obama's name. Peanut Butter Barackle, Obamana Split, and Barackadamia Nut all raised a chuckle. But it was Aaron Nathan of Amherst, Mass., who really impressed. Eschewing Obama's name, he reached another level of ingenuity when he sent in his entry: "Yes, Pecan!"
Bravo, Aaron. Bravo.
Think you can beat it? Try us.
UPDATE March 6, 1:03 p.m.: The contest's original rules state that submissions of "Baracky Road" and "Obamaberry" will not be accepted. We've got to draw the line somewhere.
UPDATE March 6, 1:37 p.m.: A scandal is brewing! Accusations of foul play are swirling around the "Yes, Pecan!" entry. It appears the phrase was first coined on Obama's official blog. We dropped the ball on this by not Googling the phrase, where we would have seen the blog entry. Still awaiting word from Aaron Nathan.
UPDATE March 6, 2:31 p.m.: Aaron Nathan gets back to us with his side of the story:
Though I am disappointed to discover that I was not the first person to think of Yes, Pecan! (and how! That sure is a lot of pecan-talk on the Obama blog), it was an independent discovery, made spur-of-the-moment, Tuesday night in the Amherst College science library, where I was trying desperately not to do my reading for class.
We're trusting folk here at Trailhead, so we'll take him at his word. One last note, courtesy of Mr. Nathan, before we close this chapter:
P.S. I realize the weird way that being accused of plagiarism on an Obama-related matter fits into this campaign—perhaps some Trailhead research could unearth, for example, Deval Patrick’s as-yet undiscovered taste for pecans...
We have a source inside the Patrick administration looking into the matter. Seriously.
UPDATE March 6, 3:40 p.m.: Trailhead reader Gerrit H. mocked up the brilliant pint of ice cream you see above. Tremendous job all around, especially on the blue, red, and white scheme.
Also, several readers have e-mailed telling us that our East Coast bias is on display by thinking "Yes, Pecan!" rhymes with "Yes, We Can!" Down South, pecans are not pronounced pe-CAN, but puh-CAHN, according to Trailhead devotees (Trailheaders? Trailheadians? Trailheads?). Considering Obama adamantly believes in one America, we think he might be distressed by this development. As a result, we're looking for an alternate flavor for Ben & Jerry's stores below the Mason-Dixon. The front-runners are currently "Barackadamia Nut" and "Neopolitician." Got anything better? Let us know.
UPDATE March 10, 12:30 a.m.: Reader Craig Woodward points out that Cherry Garcia is not named after a Dead Head, but instead a member of the Dead. We should have known better and apologize for the misstep.
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John McCain is the first out with a response to the small blast in Times Square today:
The attempted attack that happened in New York City this morning when someone tried to harm a recruiting station in Times Square is unacceptable in America. I know Mayor Bloomberg as well as other law enforcement agencies are actively working, and I have been assured a full investigation is taking place and hope they bring the individuals to justice as quickly as possible. We cannot allow this to happen to the men and women serving in our military whether they are at home or abroad.
McCain is smart to pre-empt Hillary Clinton, the actual New Yorker, on this one. How can she expect to respond to national crises if she can’t handle the ones in her own state?? Given this, it's surprising we haven't heard from Clinton yet. Maybe she's only ready for these things at 3 a.m.?
On the other hand, it appears to be exactly the sort of attack that can’t be prevented, no matter how many al-Qaida training camps we break up. Police called the blast mechanism an “improvised explosive device” possibly planted by a man on a bicycle. It’s the sort of attack that, were it to become common on a slightly larger scale, would be every security expert’s—and politician's—nightmare.
Updated 3:04 p.m.: Clinton kicked off a press conference this afternoon with a statement on the bombing. She is "deeply concerned" about the incident, she said, adding that she is "grateful there were no injuries" and "minimal damage done."
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Major events on April 22:
- Pennsylvania's primary between New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
- The first meeting of the season between the New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox.
New York is favored in both.