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Forget the Hillary-Barack sideshow. Everyone knows the real story is the local races of presidential dreamers Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul.
There was some doubt that the two long-shot candidates could win their own districts in Ohio and Texas, respectively. They both faced challengers looking to take advantage of their presidential distractions. (Kucinich foe Joe Cimperman called him “the absentee candidate”—“Show me one person here who's got health-care because of his fundraising with Sean Penn in Hawaii,” he said.) Kucinich dropped out in January to defend his seat. Paul hinted that he might do the same but remains officially in the presidential race.
Both candidates appear to have survived the attacks. Paul won 70 percent of Texas’ 14th District, overwhelming his opponent, Councilman Chris Peden. The full results of Kucinich’s district in Cleveland haven’t been tabulated, but early results showed him leading two-to-one over Cimperman.
Paul’s strength didn’t carry over to the presidential field, though. He’s trailing in the Texas presidential race at around 5 percent of the vote; same in Ohio. You’d think that might be a sign that he should drop out. Or you might think that McCain’s mathematical clinching of the nomination would deter Paul. But as he has pointed out, it’s not like he’s going to run out of money. Why not stick around for a few more races, rack up a few more delegates, and maybe score a speaking gig at the RNC? His constituents certainly don’t seem to mind.
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After stumbling through this primary season for what seems like eons (but was really just a month), Hillary Clinton finally realized her potential in Ohio tonight.
Precincts are still reporting their results, but all signs point to Clinton ramming Obama’s bandwagon. Polling averages showed Obama pulling within six points of Clinton, yet she leads by three times that margin with more than half of the precincts reporting. (Returns from presumably Obama-friendly Cuyahoga County are still streaming in.) A margin that wide could yield some real delegate gains—35 pledged delegates, according to our estimates.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s not forget that Hillary’s win only means she did what she was supposed to. She was always supposed to win Ohio because the majority of Democratic voters are working-class, economy-minded, NAFTA-hating Americans. Fifty-eight percent of Ohio voters said the economy was the most important issue, according to CNN. Obama’s strong suit has never been the economy, and having his top economic adviser say that Obama’s economic stances are all political stagecraft didn’t help his cause, either. That’s not to say she didn’t bring home the bacon when it mattered most—but she certainly didn’t cook it all by herself.
For Hillary, this is just the beginning. It doesn’t get any easier as we plow toward Pennsylvania, no matter how many times narratives flip for her by tomorrow morning. Saturday brings Wyoming’s caucuses, where she’ll probably lose to Obama’s track record in the Great Plains caucuses. Next is Mississippi, where 37 percent of the population is black. That’s another Obama win waiting to bloom.
Neither state is particularly important delegate-wise, but they will hold some sway because after Mississippi there are 42 days without a primary. The candidates will stage a biblical assault on Pennsylvania’s 44,000 square miles of blue-collar workers, New York transplants, and tortured sports fans. Clinton will need to focus every moment of her time on Pennsylvania, because it’s the beginning of a grueling state where she’ll need an average margin of victory of 26 points to catch Obama’s pledged delegate lead if the scenario above comes to pass. Anything below that 26-point mark in Pennsylvania would be crippling to her chances to catch him in pledged delegates.
But perhaps we’re post-pledged at this point in the campaign. There’s already word that Clinton’s mini-momentum spike may stem a flood of superdelegates to Obama. Clinton may not need to catch Obama in pledged delegates anymore. Now she needs to focus on convincing superdelegates that they want to back the candidate who wins big, blue states, not small, red ones. That’s still a tough sell when she'll fall short on pledged delegates.
Clinton is off to a roaring start to the new month, but in the end, she’s still likely to go out like a lamb.
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No one is ever happy to concede an election, but as political narratives go, Mike Huckabee has nothing to be ashamed of. After bobbing along for months in the basement of national polls with almost no national name recognition, this former Arkansas governor’s quixotic bid briefly launched him into the national spotlight, reorganizing the race for the Republican nomination overnight. Sure, he never really had a shot in a race that, unlike the Democratic side, is structured to weed out the competition early with winner-take-all primaries that starve people like Mike Huckabee of delegates. The fact that the odds were so stacked against him worked well for his public image; it made it much easier to ignore his wack-job approach to subjects like evolution in favor of his adorable jokes and extended metaphors. For that, we offer this eulogy:
Mike Huckabee, progenitor of quaint witticisms and mixed metaphors, bowed out of the campaign tonight with the aura of an aged prizefighter ceding to the reality of his waning strength. Appearing next to his wife, Janet, who stood by her husband with the statuesque dignity of a portrait, he spoke in the soft tones of a grade school principal bidding farewell to a graduating class. The country must be “the best nation we can be,” he said, but it was “time to hit the reset button.” Though he posted a promising batting average in the early days of this primary season, in the end Mike Huckabee simply couldn’t bring his runners home. His Boy Scout morals and Yogi Berra charm were insufficient to bring him home in the Pinewood Derby of American politics, but we will forever remember him, like we remember the famed Alamo upon which another great American battle was fought and lost, for making red and blue American seem ever so slightly more united in the color of his prose.
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The Clinton campaign needed a game-changer. It got a game-changer.
In an “EMERGENCY PRESS CALL” tonight, officials with the Clinton campaign complained of numerous “disturbing reports” from “all over the state” that Obama supporters were tampering with the Texas caucuses. (Transcript here.)
Among the accusations (or, as Clinton’s Texas director, Ace Smith, calls them, “documented instances”):
- Obama supporters closed the doors on Clinton supporters at some of the precinct conventions.
- Obama supporters monopolized the “packets” used to sign up caucus-goers. In some instances, they even “took them away from the premises” before the caucuses started, according to the Clinton campaign. Here’s why the packet matters, via the Dallas Morning News:
In most cases, the election judge [at a caucus] will have the packet with instructions, guidelines and other materials for the convention. If you gain possession of the packet, you can appoint yourself temporary chairman, get a friend to nominate you as permanent chairman and then quickly elect a secretary. If you do this, you control the flow and pace of the meeting. That could make a difference, especially if you're dealing with late arrivals and those not familiar with the process. There will be times when precincts will be merged under one election judge. That means the other packets will be up for grabs. Make sure you get one and don't allow a judge to stall you and then give the material to the rival camp.
- Some caucus results were being reported before the caucuses were even set to begin. A Clinton memo cites "numerous instances of Obama supporters filing [sic] out precinct convention sign-in sheets during the day and submitting them
as completed vote totals at caucus." In other words, cheating.
The charges are fairly broad, but the campaign promised to provide specifics. (Some are already available here.)
Whatever the merits, the campaign’s decision to draw attention to the issue as it was happening was a bold move. (Communications director Howard Wolfson made sure to point out that they had never done this before.) It’s now guaranteed to overshadow the election results, no matter who wins. If Obama pulls through in Texas, naturally the issue calls his victory into question. If it’s Hillary, the added sense of injustice could propel her even further back into the race.
On the call, which was abruptly and entertainingly hijacked by Obama attorney Bob Bauer, Clinton’s lawyer couldn’t say whether the campaign was going to take this to court. It’s too early to say. But it doesn’t matter whether this lands in court. If the flap manages to overshadow the election results, whatever they may be, then mission accomplished. Obama’s normally lightning-quick campaign has been slow to respond, suggesting that 1) there’s merit to the charges, 2) the campaign doesn’t want to dignify them with a response, or 3) the campaign wants to be extremely careful (especially post-Goolsbee) about what it confirms and denies. In any case, the Clinton campaign has made one thing clear: If Obama thinks he can walk away with the nomination, he'll have to do it walking on glass.
Read the rest of Trailhead's coverage on the emergency call.
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Clinton wins Rhode Island; Obama wins Vermont. And with that we're right back where we started.
The two victories, coupled with early returns that currently show 20-point margins in each state, mean that neither candidate will sneak a few extra delegates out of the off-the-radar states tonight. Any delegate gains Obama makes in Vermont are likely to be cut down by Clinton's slightly better-than-expected haul in Rhode Island. This stalemate is a microcosm of the match playing out on a grander scale in the overall pledged delegate picture.
But a stalemate isn't enough for Clinton--she needs to start making strides. If her 17-point lead holds in Ohio (26 percent of precincts reporting), that would allow her to strut into Pennsylvania.
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The conference call of glory has ended, and we've got a hot transcript of the exchange between Obama lawyer Bob Bauer and Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson. Click here to drink the raw political nectar.
We'll have a post coming soon summarizing this mega-flap, and what it means moving forward.
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More on the unreal conference call that's still happening. A reporter late to the party asks Howard Wolfson to identify the Obama campaign person who hijacked the call earlier. “He’s Bob Bauer, he’s someone we know very well,” Wolfson informs him. “B-A-U-E-R.” According to Wolfson, he was “attempting a vigorous defense of the indefensible.” This has got to be the best slap-down of the cycle, and the entire press corps has front-row seats.
Ace Smith, the Clinton campaign’s state director, chips in, “These are not accusations, these are documented instances … of Democratic voters being actively disenfranchised.”
The main charges being made: Clinton supporters were locked out of caucus sites; Obama supporters ran off with or manipulated the "packets" used to control the caucuses; some caucus results were reported before caucuses were even supposed to begin.
The question coming out of this is, what does it mean for the Texas results? (Last time I checked, Obama was ahead by a hair.) Will Clinton reject the results if he wins? Or, as Time’s Jay Newton-Small asks, will she even reject them if she wins?
Stay tuned for a transcript of the call.
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Screaming into our inbox, the following e-mail from Clinton's campaign:
** MEDIA ADVISORY **
Time Sensitive: Emergency Press Call To Discuss Caucus Intimidation and Irregularities in TX
Clinton has the entire press corps on a call right now detailing that Barack Obama broke myriad rules during today's caucuses. They're serious allegations and will overshadow all other story lines, including the results that come out of Texas' caucuses. More info at Ambinder.
It's way too early to tell whether these allegations are legit, but we'll try to pump news through as soon as we see it or get it ourselves. In the meantime, this is the freshest, most significant piece of evidence that suggests a prolonged Democratic battle could bloody both candidates. Also, Clinton has a higher burden of proof because the campaign has always said caucuses were unfair.
Bob Bauer, an Obama lawyer, just burst into the call and tried to call the Clinton camp's bluff. This is tremendously ugly and incredibly exciting, even by this campaign's standards.
A sampling of the kind of language being used on the call from Clinton folk:
"Obama supporters have taken over the caucus."
"What is happening at Texas today ... is not typical. It is actually quite extraordinary."
"These are not accusations, these are documented instances."
"Voters actively disenfranchised—this is outrageous."
"They let Obama supporters in, but they kept Clinton supporters out."
More details coming ASAP.
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CNN has called Vermont and Ohio for John McCain. (What’s his Ben & Jerry’s flavor?) But we’re going to go out on a limb and assume he’ll win the other two contests as well. McCain has been acting like the nominee for a few weeks already. Does tonight change anything? Here’s a quick portrait of the new landscape:
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Huckabee must go. If you include the delegates “released” to him by Romney, McCain will now have the 1,191 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. So, Huckabee, despite
his skepticism when it comes to mathematics, pretty much has to bow out. (Of course, that’s what everyone said after Feb. 5.) The question is how. We’re betting on a rock concert.
[Update 9:21 p.m.: Huckabee is dropping out as we speak, kicking off his speech with a baseball metaphor. Where's the slap bass?
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The Democratic death march. The longer the Democratic race drags on, the more McCain benefits. If Hillary manages to survive through Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary, that gives McCain a six week head start to fundraise, plot strategy, and get eight hours of sleep a night.
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Find a veep. McCain claims he hasn’t given a single thought to his vice presidential pick. Nonsense. Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped McCain win Florida, is now reupping his own value by advocating another Democratic primary in Florida, which would guarantee a long and painful race for the Dems. Other
potential picks are no doubt getting in line to give McCain a great back rub.
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Taking care of business. You may recall that John McCain has a day job serving as a United States senator. By locking up the nomination now, he can spend more time with the day-to-day of writing and voting on legislation. This is a big deal for senators during presidential campaigns, who are usually vulnerable to charges of skipping votes. The more time McCain can log in the Senate, the more he can ding Clinton or Obama for playing hooky.
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Projecting inevitability. President Bush is expected to endorse McCain tomorrow. Shocker, I know. But the passing of the crown does let McCain start tapping the resources of the Republican establishment and acting like a president. Plus, the more he can do to tamp down the “maverick” label, the better. At the same time, though, with Bush’s approval rating still in the toilet, he wants to avoid looking like a third Bush term.
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It's time for our regular dive into the exit polls. The juicy bits from Ohio's Democratic results, according to CNN.
- Obama is seen as the most electable, but that doesn't mean everybody likes him. Of the 53 percent of voters who think Obama has a better chance of winning in November, 15 percent still voted for Clinton.
- For all the hubub we make over the debates, it seems like they actually matter. The 74 percent of voters who say the debates informed their vote are essentially split between Obama and Clinton. Among the 18 percent who said the debates didn't matter, Clinton was favored.
- More Ohioans think Clinton has a clear plan for the country (68 percent) than think that Obama has a clear plan (57 percent).
- Of the 25 percent with only a high-school education, Clinton is favored nearly 2-to-1.
- 23 percent of Obama supporters say Clinton inspires them. 31 percent of Clinton supporters say Obama inspires them.
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Obama has scooped up a state best known for its cows, hippies, and home-grown ice cream company. His expected win in Vermont isn't much to write home about at this point in the campaign. At one point, winning a state where black and Latino voters barely exist would have been big news for Barack Obama. But these days, winning the white vote is always a strong possibility (if not a likelihood) for Obama because white males have been breaking so strongly toward him.
His boring win did have one mildly interesting factoid: Old people finally love Obama! Seventeen percent of voters were 65 or older, and 61 percent of them voted for Obama, according to exit polls. Obama did better among seniors than he did among 50- to 64-year-olds, which means that if Obama can't call himself post-racial, he can call himself post-age.
And, yes, all of Obama's success is owed to Ben & Jerry's, which endorsed him after John Edwards dropped out. We're taking suggestions for the B&J flavor based on Obama. And no, neither Baracky Road nor Obamaberry are viable submissions. Only Obamatose supporters recommend those also-rans.
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Campaign typography analysis is so hot right now.
Back in November, the New York Times ran a cartoon analysis of campaign logo aesthetics. In the Boston Globe, a typography analyst wrote that Hillary’s “tall lower-case reminds me of someone with their pants pulled up too high.” Newsweek’s Andrew Romano recently examined the Obama “brand,” with its hip, bold, evenly spaced Gotham font.
Now, over at typeface firm Hoefler & Frere-Jones, the inventors of Gotham are weighing in. Whereas Gotham “isn't pretending to be anything it's not,” they write
Hillary's snooze of a serif might have come off a heart-healthy cereal box, or a mildly embarrassing over-the-counter ointment; if you're feeling generous you might associate it with a Board of Ed circular, or an obscure academic journal. But Senator McCain's typeface is positively mystifying: after three decades signifying a very down-market notion of luxe, this particular sans serif has settled into being the font of choice for the hygiene aisle. One of McCain's campaign themes is "Making Tough Choices:" is this the one you would have made?
To illustrate their point, they offer this repurposing of the Clinton and McCain fonts:
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The 2008 presidential race has seen some creative campaign strategies, most notably the infamous Ron Paul money bomb. But if Tom Brokaw is correct, the Obama campaign may have something else up its sleeve: a superdelegate bomb.
This morning, Brokaw told Joe Scarborough on MSNBC that someone "very close to the Obama campaign" told him they have 50 endorsers "ready to go public" with their support. Presumably, this would be Obama's coup de grace after March 4.
Here’s how it might work. The likeliest of scenarios today is a split decision: Clinton wins Ohio, Obama wins Texas. In which case, expect spin chaos. Obama’s people will point to the overall pledged delegate count. The Clinton camp will direct your attention to the popular votes and claim the Texas caucus doesn’t matter.
But the Obama campaign has two secret weapons: money and superdelegates. On the money front, the Obama campaign can finally reveal its February fundraising totals. Clinton announced last week that she had raised $35 million that month; estimates put Obama’s number somewhere north of $50 million. But they’ve waited to announce it, presumably because they wanted to get the timing just right.
After unveiling the cash, send in the superdelegates. Since Super Tuesday, Obama has netted a total of more than 36 new superdelegates, whereas Clinton has lost six. (They continued to trickle Obama-ward today.) If today’s contests are tight, all eyes will turn to superdelegates for guidance on who’s winning. Normally, it matters who's doing the endorsing. But, at this point, big names like Al Gore and Jimmy Carter won’t endorse until a candidate is locked in. Same with party leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean, who don’t benefit from choosing sides. So it’s not about who endorses butabout how many people do. Were the Obama campaign to drop a 50-ton superdelegate bomb on the Clinton campaign’s head the day after a tie, it’s not hard to see where momentum would swing.
Combined with the moneybomb, the superdelegate bomb could decide the race. But like any bomb, it’s something you don’t use unless you have to. To that end, the Obama campaign might have leaked the news to Brokaw to try to scare Hillary into dropping out. That way, she would avoid an embarrassing exodus of superdelegates. But if the threat doesn’t work, and the results of March 4 are close, Obama will waste no time in pushing the red button.
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Sometimes the campaigns sound like they’re speaking two different languages. The Clinton team often speaks only in terms of total delegates, whereas the Obama people talk in terms of pledged delegates. Clinton’s camp uses the term “automatic delegates,” whereas Obama’s sticks with “superdelegates.” Tonight could produce another semantic split: Are we including Texas caucus results or not?
The last Ohio and Texas polls close at 7:30 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET, respectively. But Texas’ caucuses don’t even start until after that, which means we won’t know the full results until late in the night.
Hillary Clinton should be perfectly fine with that. If she gives her speech tonight around 9:30 ET, she’ll avoid having to address what could be an Obama rout in the Texas caucuses. (See here for theories about why Obama does better in caucuses.) On a conference call yesterday, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson hinted that Texas’ caucus results would not factor into their interpretation of who won the day’s election. If Clinton is lucky, she’ll be able to shape the night’s narrative before the caucuses are even over.
It’s hard to imagine that spin surviving the night, however. Whatever happens in Ohio and Texas, everyone will wake up Wednesday morning with the cold hard numbers of the delegate count staring them in the face. And for better or worse, Texas’ caucus commands 67 delegates—more than Rhode Island alone.