Monday, March 31, 2008 - Posts
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As the Democratic race drags on, expect to see more and more hypothetical scenarios emerge as journalists dig deep into party literature, scouring for clues to how this mess will turn out. Chances are you'll hear about the “minority report” scenario.
Short story: When the DNC’s credentials committee meets in July (a date hasn’t been set), whichever candidate controls more of the committee’s 186 members will decide whether Florida and Michigan are seated. That’s because states allocate committee members proportionally based on their primary votes, so whoever wins more pledged delegates (Obama) essentially controls the committee. (DNC Chairman Howard Dean gets to appoint 25 members as well, so he could also hold sway.) However, if 20 percent of the members disagree with the committee’s decision, they can draft a minority report, which then goes to a vote at the convention in August.
This is an option Clinton’s supporters would no doubt take, since it could be her last lifeline. And this is what Clinton probably meant when she told the Washington Post that “we’ll resolve [the Florida and Michigan question] at the convention—that’s what the credentials committees are for.”
The problem with the minority-report scenario, though, is that it changes nothing. Even if the Florida and Michigan question makes it to the convention floor, whoever has more delegates will instruct them on how to vote. And realistically, we’ll know who has more delegates long before the convention. The only scenario in which the minority report could actually make a difference is if we go into the convention with a sizable chunk of superdelegates uncommitted. But think about how implausible that is. Once all 50 states (and Puerto Rico) are done voting in early May, superdelegates will face enormous pressure to pick sides. Whether or not there’s an official “superdelegate primary” that forces them to vote, most superdelegates will have to get off the fence.
And once that happens, Florida/Michigan will become a moot point. Whoever has more delegates will decide whether to seat them, which means that whoever has more delegates (without counting Michigan and Florida) will be the nominee. Period. To cling to the minority report as a Hail Mary solution to the Florida/Michigan question ignores the facts of the process.
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The contrast between the Democratic and Republican races would be funny if it weren’t so depressing. While Obama and Clinton bruise each other over Iraq, delegates, and Florida and Michigan, John McCain takes a grand tour of the Middle East and Europe, followed by a domestic tour touting his own biography. Voters tuning in have two options: brutal political warfare vs. story time with John McCain. It’s no surprise, therefore, that they’re choosing the latter.
Last week, a Gallup poll showed that more than 20 percent of Clinton and Obama supporters would vote for McCain if their favorite candidate didn’t get the nomination. A full 28 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee.
This calls for a little skepticism. Not that the poll is wrong, necessarily, but that voters are likely to feel a lot different come November than they do now. John McCain looks better now than he ever will again, especially when compared with the embattled Democrats. The moment the Dem nominee turns his or her full energies on McCain—his relationships with lobbyists, his tax-cut flips, his inadvisable and oft-twisted “100 years” remark—his sheen is bound to get a little scuffed. At which point the 20 percent will drop fast.
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Lots of Clinton news over the weekend, not all bad—but bad enough to
dock her another 0.6 points in the Rodhameter, bringing her chances of
winning to 9.7 percent.
Roughest of all is the latest national Gallup poll, which gives
Obama a margin-of-error-busting lead of 10 points—his largest this
year. Rather than destroying him, maybe the Jeremiah Wright flap only
made him stronger (in the short term, at least). That, or Bosnia is the new macaca. ...
Read more at the Hillary Clinton Deathwatch.
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In an interview with the Washington Post on Saturday, Hillary Clinton declared that she will take her presidential bid all the way to the August convention, if necessary.
"I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan. And if we don't resolve it, we’ll resolve it at the convention—that’s what the credentials committees are for.” [Emphasis added]
Not quite. What Clinton fails to mention is that the credentials committee, which would decide which delegations get seated and which do not, votes in July. The committee is going to be dominated not by Clinton loyalists—although three co-chairs have ties to Bill Clinton—but by people selected by Barack Obama and Howard Dean.
Of the committee’s 186 delegates, Dean appoints 35 himself. This group is going to do whatever he tells them. If the DNC works out a compromise solution to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations, they’ll support that. If not, they’ll oppose it. The rest of the committee members, divvied up by state, are allocated proportionally. So if a state has four committee seats and the two candidates split the vote in that state's primary, Obama gets to appoint two members and Hillary appoints two. Since Obama has the lead in pledged delegates—and will have the lead going into the convention—he’ll also have more committee members, and will therefore control the committee when it comes to deciding on Michigan and Florida.
The one scenario in which the Florida/Michigan question could reach the convention is if 20 percent of the credentials committee decides to file a minority report. That could conceivably allow the entire convention to vote on the Florida/Michigan question. Needless to say, Democratic leaders will do everything they can to prevent this scenario from happening.
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