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BAKERSFIELD, Calif.—Even Californians get star struck. Two hours north of Hollywood, about 100 people turned out to see America Ferrera and pals proselytize for Hillary Clinton today. Everybody listened to Ferrera and four other actors sing Hillary’s praises, but most people weren’t here for the senator. They were here for souvenirs.
The crowd rushed to the stage after the event, shoving Hillary signs and sharpies toward the actors for autographs. As I tried to talk to a down-to-earth actor from American Pie, we were interrupted three times by fans wanting to take a picture with him. I refrained from telling them that American Pie hasn’t been cool in 10 years.
But neither has Hillary. After her defeat in Iowa, Clinton and crew realized that the hipper, sleeker Obama was dominating the youth vote. To counteract Obama’s charisma, they teamed Chelsea Clinton up with some Hollywood stars and sent them on a tour of colleges across the country. They’re called the Hillblazers—an unsurprisingly uncool name.
The actors make no secret that they’re campaigning against young people’s perception of Obama. Ferrera said the election doesn’t have to be a popularity contest. “Just because I’m young doesn’t mean I have to submit to catchy campaign slogans and things that make you tear up.” It’s like a warped adaptation of those anti-drug D.A.R.E. programs from elementary school: Just because the cool kids like Obama doesn’t mean you have to.
To their credit, the Hillblazers gave a convincing stump speech. They told touching, insightful stories about Hillary’s character and her personality, barely talking about Hillary’s policies. (When they did, they dwelled on education more than other areas.) They might be dumbing down their speech, but their assignment is to fight the charisma battle in the broader political war—nothing more.
Alas, even the actors admitted being attracted to the Obama’s campaign magnetism. Simon Woods, a British actor who is volunteering for Hillary, said, “I was slightly jealous of the Obama volunteers. Because they were kind of cooler than we were, they were kind of better looking, and they had better clothes. And they got everybody excited.” The Hillblazers got everybody excited, too—but mostly about autographs, not the candidate.
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If you live in a state that votes on Super Tuesday, I’ve got some bad news for you: There’s a good chance your district won’t count. California’s 34th congressional district, part of Los Angeles County and the state’s most heavily Hispanic district: worthless. Same goes for the 48th district in Orange County, home to Laguna Beach and Irvine. The state’s 6th district, which overlaps with the uber-wealthy Marin County, could turn out to be equally powerless. What do these districts have in common? They all have an even number of delegates.
Let’s back up for a second. On Feb. 5, as in all Democratic primaries, delegates will be allocated proportionally. In California, 241 of the state’s 441 delegates go to the winners of each of the state’s 51 districts. (The state also gives 81 “at-large” delegates based on statewide totals, plus many more PLEOs and “superdelegates.”) So it helps to look at any given primary not as one big statewide battle, but as a flurry of minibattles for each district’s delegates.
In California, each district has between three and seven delegates at stake. So say a district has four delegates. Unless there’s a landslide victory there, then each candidate--Clinton and Obama--will get two of those delegates. In a two-way race, a candidate has to get at least 62.5 percent of the vote—halfway between ½ and ¾, for you math buffs—to win a third delegate. Or say there are six delegates at stake. Then you’d have to win a little more than 58 percent to get more delegates than your opponent. As a result, it’s almost always a tie. It’s only in the districts with an odd number of delegates that one candidate is guaranteed to win more delegates than the other.
So, in a tight race like Clinton vs. Obama, most if not all even-numbered districts are likely to result in a draw—and therefore effectively not count. Click here to see a chart of how many delegates each district gets. As you can see, 32 of the state’s 53 districts have an even number of delegates. In the other 21 districts, the winner will only win one more delegate than the loser. (Again, unless it’s a landslide.)
To give you a visual sense of how this works, we created this color-coded map. Blue districts have an odd number of delegates; yellow districts have an even number.
Extrapolate this example to every other Super Tuesday state, and you see why neither Clinton nor Obama is likely to emerge with a huge delegate lead.
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Yet another reason why the notion of a Hillary/Obama “dream ticket” is pure fantasy:
Clinton's team held a conference call today in which a handful of health experts denounced a new mailer [PDF] being sent out by the Obama campaign, which attacks Hillary's proposal for a universal mandate. One person, Len Nichols of the New American Foundation, compared the mailer to the “Harry and Louise” ads from 1993, paid for by insurance companies, that helped turn public opinion against health-care reform. (Nichols also said it’s “as outrageous as having Nazis march through Skokie, Illinois,” but Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson later distanced the campaign from that comment.)
The original H&L spot showed a couple anxiously leafing through piles of papers at a dinner table and discussing the mandate; Obama’s mailer features a photo of a man and a woman sitting at a table.
It’s not the first time that comparison has been drawn. In early January, an Obama radio ad made the same case against Hillary’s mandate plan, arguing that it would force people who can’t afford insurance to buy it anyway. (A claim Hillary's campaign deems a deliberate distortion.) Paul Krugman, among others, made the H&L comparison and called Obama’s argument “the audacity of cynicism.”
Both Obama ads—the January radio spot and the new mailer—also cite an endorsement article from the Daily Iowan, the student newspaper of the University of Iowa in Iowa City, as its source for the claim that Hillary’s plan would be “punishing those who don’t fall in line with fines.” Ben Smith tracked down David Axelrod, who called the Iowan “a respected newspaper."
Please. Anyone who has worked in campus journalism knows that even the best publications probably shouldn’t be used as the sole source for political literature. After taking flak for that same move in January, the Obama’s people should have learned from their mistake.
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If you were wondering how John McCain is selling himself to
skeptical Republicans, look no further than his new ad, "True Conservative.” Any of the candidates could run a spot with that title, but
only one of them can summon this particular combination of keywords:
“Prisoner-of-war … Ronald Reagan … foot soldier … strong
conservative principles … taxes low … social conservative … never waver … leadership
and experience … surge … working … true conservative … commander-in-chief …”
Apparently the strategy here is to repeat the word
“conservative” as many times as possible. Keep an eye out for subliminal single-frame images of Ronald Reagan's face.
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You won’t believe it until you see it: Ann Coulter defending Hillary Clinton on Hannity & Colmes.
While railing on John McCain, Coulter proclaims that Clinton is stronger in the war on terror than McCain is. “I will campaign for her if it’s McCain,” she declares. You can see Hannity’s eyebrows jump. “That part isn’t true,” she hedges, “but the rest of it is true.”
Coulter has made a career out of saying the most provocative thing that comes to mind and running with it. But this goes too far. Her game is deep. There has to be some other explanation.
Could she be trying to get Democrats to back away from Obama, who she knows would be a stronger general election candidate? Or is it some sort of pre-emptive sabotage, where she knows no Democrat would vote for anyone with Coulter’s endorsement, and is therefore trying to taint Hillary’s eventual candidacy? Or maybe she’s merely trying to put her distaste for McCain in the most extreme terms possible?
Whatever you think of Coulter, you have to admire her knack for messing with people's heads.