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CNN tried to pin Hillary down on Ted Kennedy's comments that Obama=JFK just like CNN=Politics. After Clinton was done paying her respects to Teddy she quickly moved on to downplay the role surrogates' have in campaigns. "This is about the two of us" she said, and then later added, "You evaluate the two of us because nobody else will be on the ballot." I believe she's talking about that husband of hers.
Wolf Blitzer, not content to have comments stay implicit, bounced a question to Barack Obama about Bill Clinton's tenure in office, and whether Democrats should remember them fondly. Obama, who called Bill out repeatedly a week or two ago, didn't take the bait. He didn't play the victim card, nor did he say Bill's presidential successes are overstated.
I stand corrected on that whole slobberknocker thing.
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Despite pulling out of the race this week, John Edwards' spirit is
very much with us. Both Obama and Clinton paid tribute to the fallen
candidate in their opening statements, keying in on his poverty work as
especially noble. Clinton gave Edwards a shout out during her original
statement on universal health care. Even CNN left a desk next to Obama,
presumably where Edwards would have sat if he was still with us.
But
this is utilitarian, not unconditional, love. Edwards is still a free
agent, which means it's Edwards-time all the time. Note that Rudy
Giuliani, who endorsed John McCain, didn't receive these testaments
last night at the GOP debate.
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At this point, the candidates probably dream about their health care policy points in their sleep. Obama nailed his health care response.
Obama managed to name drop Ted Kennedy, refer to his past insurance-expansion experience in Illinois, alluded to his commitment to transparency by showing some respect for C-SPAN, and dinging Clinton on her unwillingness to distance herself from special interests and lobbyists. Four key points delivered smoothly and in a concise answer.
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The Los Angeles Times' first question already tries to get the candidates to go after each other. Hillary is asked to detail the differences between Obama's policies and hers. Clinton answers the question, but she still manages to present a united Democratic front. That's important for a candidate who is thought to have helped create a schism in the Democratic party. Obama, meanwhile, takes a different tact. He details the differences between him and Clinton, bangs the Republicans, but then goes back to hit Clinton again on special interests, Iraq, and diplomacy. Obama may realize that because he's behind (but surging) in the polls, he's the one who has to go out of his way to make the distinctions.
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Ferris Bueller's Day Off.
Seriously. He just said as much to the audience.
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Hello and welcome to a live-blog of the Democratic throwdown. If you aren't watching Lost, you'll be treated to a live-blog of the debate from inside the Kodak Theater. First impressions as the photo pool takes some pictures:
- The CNN set looks much comelier in person than it does on TV. They've also got some pretty fancy translucent-topped desks.
- Wolf Blitzer is personable off-camera. He incorporated Kazhakstan into one of his jokes to warm up a crowd.
- Ryan Seacrest is nowhere in sight. Nor is Oscar.
Stay tuned for more updates, hopefully of the political variety.
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LOS ANGELES—Barack Obama supposedly hosted an economic town hall meeting today, but it sure didn’t seem like it. While giving a short stump speech and taking questions from the audience, he mentioned the downturn in the economy only once. To be fair, he spoke at length about the struggling middle class—but those lines are leftovers from the prerecession era of the campaign. The times demand irrational exuberance.
The problem isn’t that Obama broke his promise to talk about the economy—I doubt most of the supporters there knew or cared. It’s that the economy is the issue Obama struggles with most, yet he’s not trying to convince voters he knows how to shoot the bears and bring on the bulls.
If Obama wants to win California, he has to take care of two weaknesses: Latinos and the economy. On the latter, the latest Rasmussen tracking poll says nearly half of California Democrats think the economy is the top issue, and Clinton leads by 15 percentage points among those voters.
Obama finally tackled the issue at the end, but only after an eighth-grader asked him, “What would you do as a president to help make the economy get better, not worse?” Obama responded, “OK, that’s a good last question.” Damn right it’s a good question. Obama answered by talking about mortgages, bankruptcy, and tax codes, and he did it pretty well. But he didn’t talk about the Fed, Wall St., or interest rates. Instead of speaking in nitty-gritty financial terms, he reverted to stump snippets on health care and energy independence. He needs to start acting more like Hillary.
This is a problem across the board. Obama doesn’t seem to like talking about details. At the event, he threw out more policies than the crowd knew what to do with—health care, affordable housing, early childhood education, veterans care, immigration reform. Obama didn’t remember to tell people that he thought he could pay for all of these lofty programs until 45 minutes into the event. “And by the way, all these promises I’m making, I’d pay for them,” he said. “Don’t think I’m just making these loud promises. We’ve talked about how we’re going to pay for these initiatives.” Did he tell us what those measures were? No—he moved on instead.
I take Obama at his word—that he has had those discussions. (Indeed, his Web site outlines some of his planned spending.) But he has to start incorporating that wonky talk in his events. Obama doesn’t seem to trust the voters’ capacity to hear high-minded fiscal details every now and then. But if there’s anything he can learn from Hillary, it’s her ability to spew statistics without notes.
Obama has to find a way to talk both details and big ideas, and it would be best if he could figure it out before tonight’s debate. During his answer on the economy, Obama was numbering each of his policy points before he went into why he thought they were good ideas. (Perhaps he’s organized after all.) Near the end of the question, he forgot whether he had already said two or three of his proposals, which led to an unintentionally telling moment. After collecting himself, Obama said, “I’m losing track. I’ve got so many good ideas.” Enough with the ideas, Barack. We want some deets.
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We just recycled an old Explainer on what happens to the delegates of candidates when they drop out:
On Wednesday, John Edwards surprised pundits by announcing he was dropping out
of the 2008 Democratic presidential race. So what happens to his 61
hard-earned delegates? In this article from the election season of
2004, Brendan I. Koerner answered a similar question about the end of
retired Gen. Wesley Clark's bid for the White House.
Read the rest here.
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Now that John Edwards has dropped out of the Democratic presidential race so that “history can blaze its path,” Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have tonight's debate stage all to themselves. Naturally, the networks (and we) are hyping it as a mano-a-womano showdown, a duel to the death, a steel cage match of political acumen.
Here are a few things to look for:
Knives out. Ever since South Carolina, Obama has ratcheted up the anti-Hillary rhetoric. Without naming names, he told a crowd of 9,000 in Denver yesterday that this election is about “past versus future,” and that it’s time to end the “same do-anything, say-anything, divisive politics.” Clinton’s camp called the speech an “angry screed.” Today, they sent out an e-mail blast denouncing the Obama campaign’s “character attacks.” Look for Obama to cite Hillary’s “distortions” of his record, to play his Iraq vote trump card early and often, and to emphasize his new favorite dichotomy: “ready vs. right.” (Keep in mind he hasn’t tapped the real ‘90s dirt; the words “Whitewater,” “travelgate,” and “Lincoln bedroom” remind unuttered.) Expect Hillary to fire back on Rezko and Obama’s “present” votes, and probably to act hurt once or twice. At this point, Obama could benefit from getting a little steamed, when appropriate. But without an Edwards to bring everyone back to earth, the fuses won’t have much time to cool.
The Golden State pander. Expect to hear a lot about pathways to citizenship, jobs, and strong communities. Also prepare for a resurgence of the driver's license issue. Obama recently declared his support for licenses for illegal immigrants—a stance that will certainly help him among Latinos in California, but which could backfire badly in other states. Hillary officially opposes such licenses, but she’ll have trouble dinging Obama for it, since she famously wavered on the issue in a debate last fall. And hell, now that they’re in California, Obama might even praise Ronald Reagan for real this time.
Stimulate this. Exit polls show voters listing the economy as their top issue. Congress and the White House are approaching a showdown over a stimulus package. Obama and Hillary both have unveiled their own packages and are likely to spend tonight touting them. Obama’s emphasizes fast cash on hand and rebates for low- and middle-income seniors. Hillary’s includes a housing crisis plan that would freeze interest rates and impose a moratorium on some subprime mortgages. She also tosses in money for heating homes. Observers disagree on whose plan is better—as will the candidates.
The Anti-McCain. With John McCain leading the Republican pack, both candidates will try to prove that they’re the one who can beat him. Obama offered a preview of his argument in his Denver speech yesterday: “It's time for new leadership that understands that the way to win a debate with John McCain ... is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq; who agreed with him by voting to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran; who agrees with him in embracing the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like.” Hillary will argue that she has experience sustaining GOP attacks, whereas Obama’s still green.
Given all this, expect the most furious mid- and post-debate spin yet. After her “win” in Florida, Clinton will try to use her debate performance to build on that “momentum.” Obama’s team, meanwhile, will politely remind everyone of the delegate count.
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With the results from the Florida Republican primary
tallied, Trailhead reader Meghan Jensen has edged ahead with 26 points out of a
possible 41, making her the fifth person to lead in as many rounds of our Primary
Pool. Four other contestants are right at Meghan’s heels with 25 points.
Florida proved elusive,
with only four contestants predicting the first-, second-, and third-place
winners correctly when predictions were submitted the day of the Iowa caucuses. With only
one round of the pool remaining and eight Feb. 5 contests in play—New York,
California, and Missouri for both parties, Illinois for the Democrats and
Massachusetts for the Republicans—there are still 48 points available next
Tuesday, making this pool anyone’s for the taking.
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A quick eyeball of Sen. Ted Kennedy’s campaign schedule for Barack Obama makes the strategy pretty clear: National Hispanic Cultural Center, Albuquerque, N.M.; Santa Fe Community College; gatherings in Los Angeles and Oakland. Maybe he’ll drop by a King Taco for good measure.
For months, Hillary Clinton has held a solid lead over Obama in California. Polls show Obama closing the gap—a Rasmussen poll put him within the margin of error. But it’s unclear if he’ll catch up by Feb. 5. Most people are chalking up Clinton’s success to her support among Latinos. She has the backing of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, among other Hispanic leaders; and she’s been courting Latinos, who could make up as much as 25 percent of the state’s Democratic electorate on Super Tuesday, much more aggressively than Obama. (Hispanic sentiment toward Obama seems to be largely based on unfamiliarity.
But with Kennedy on board, Obama is trying to alter the calculus in a week. He may not be able to pull off a win in Hispanic communities. But because of the way delegates are allocated, he doesn’t need to. Micro-electoral guru Ambinder explains why. Briefly, it’s because the state allocates many of its delegates proportionally by district. (California has 53 congressional districts. 241 delegates are given to the winners of the districts. Another 81 delegates go to whoever wins the state.) So say a district has four delegates at stake. Even if a candidate wins sixty percent of the vote in that district, he or she will still receive only two delegates. If there are an odd number of delegates, the most a candidate can win by is one.
So Kennedy doesn’t need to win over every Latino in California for Obama. Just enough to close the gap slightly. That way, as long as Hillary doesn’t rack up a bunch of lopsided wins, the delegate race will be incredibly tight. And given expectations, Obama can live with that.
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In the days before Super Tuesday, campaign strategy gets complicated.
Apparently Hillary’s plan, at least in part, is to make a bunch of really weird
videos.
The first is an ad called “Freefall,” the main visual
motif of which is a body hurtling through the sky. If Rudy Giuliani had done
it, people would be accusing him of exploiting 9/11 imagery. That might be a
stretch in Hillary’s case, but it’s still slightly discomfiting, even as a
metaphor for the economy.
The campaign has also posted a VH1 Behind the Music spoof called “Hillary and the Band,”
presumably aimed at college kids. The joke: Hillary was once in a band, but she
quit to run for president. The acting isn't bad, and it could have worked as
a straight-faced parody. But then they go and undermine the premise: “Okay. Maybe
Hillary doesn’t shred. But she will: Make
College Affordable. Fight
Global Warming. End the War.” As usual, it was fun until the message part.
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You know Barack Obama’s problem? He doesn’t appeal enough to young people.
Thank goodness, then, that he has the endorsement of Kal Penn, the actor now and forever known to the world as Kumar. As if the campaign hadn’t already secured the 18-24 male demographic by recruiting Scarlett Johansson to campaign for Obama. Now, by signing up Kumar—er, Penn—it's got that group in a stranglehold.
Penn is holding a series of rallies at Emerson College, Boston University, Boston College, and Tufts University before tonight’s Democratic debate, according to the campaign. It’s unclear what he’ll discuss, although presumably most questions will deal with Guantanamo Bay. Specifically, the upcoming Harold and Kumar 2: Escape From Guantanamo Bay. In the film, Harold and Kumar get arrested for smuggling a bong on a plane to Amsterdam and, suspected of terrorism, get sent to Gitmo. Given that Obama has called for the closing of Guantanamo, he and Ku—Penn—have a lot in common.
After his tour, Penn will return to teaching classes on film at the University of Pennsylvania. Yes, Penn teaches at Penn.