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Did George Bush pass his bulge down to Mitt Romney? In 2004, Bush infamously had a giant, microphonelike bump on his back during a debate against John Kerry. Rumors were flying that Bush had a direct line to Karl Rove during the debate and that Rove was feeding him answers to the questions (even though Bush turned in a terrible performance). Last night, Bush’s Bulge begat a cousin: the Romney Whisper.
At last night’s debate, Tim Russert asked Romney if he would follow Reagan’s example on Social Security. Russert was careful not to tell Romney that Reagan raised taxes to help Social Security funds, so somebody else tried to tell Romney instead. After Russert finishes his question, a Lost-like whisper is heard that mutters, “Raise taxes.” Romney answered that he would not raise taxes, and then Russert giddily informed him that that’s not the case.
We asked MSNBC why the whisper came through, and MSNBC’s spokesman responded via e-mail.
We heard the same thing you heard. There was obviously an open mike which picked up the whisper, but we have no way of knowing who did the whispering.
So, who is the whisperer? Three schools of thought reign in the blogosphere:
- It was a Romney staffer trying to talk to Romney.
- It was a producer trying to talk to Russert.
- It was another candidate whispering the answer to himself or his neighbor.
But forget about what us bloggers think. Decide for yourself after watching the clip at Slate V.
With Alex Joseph.
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COLUMBIA, S.C.—Today, Hillary entered the belly of the beast. The beast being Barack Obama’s base; its belly being Benedict College, a historically black school that Obama has courted assiduously over the past year.
The student body is largely pro-Obama, and it figures: Obama has visited the school, as have his wife, Michelle; actress Tatiana Ali; and Diana Ross’ daughter on his behalf. Hillary brought out her own star power today, but somehow Charlie Rangel and David Dinkins don't have the same cachet here. (At the next event, in front of a mostly white audience, Rangel and Dinkins are absent.) When I ask a student why Obama commands so much support, he points to the skin on the back of his hand. But a lot of students were adamantly pro-Hillary, and many more are conflicted, as you could tell from the packed chapel.
Which is a useful reminder that this primary isn’t over. Sure, Obama has been canvassing the state for days. But Hillary is holding four events today; Bill is holding four as well. Obama is leading in the polls and among opinion-makers, but remember what happened in New Hampshire and Nevada. Sixty percent of South Carolina Democrats are black, but what if Obama’s grip on that demographic isn’t as strong as we thought?
And keep in mind: Even if Obama wins, he can still lose. (At least in the twisted, overreaching logic of post-election analysis.) For example: If he doesn’t take a decisive majority of African-Americans. If he doesn’t win one-quarter of whites. If his overall margin over Hillary is too narrow. In all of these instances, the postgame narrative won’t be Why did he win? but Why didn’t he win by more? That's why the Clintons are painting Obama's lead right now as extra-wide—so when he wins by five or six points, they can claim strategic victory.
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Big shocker here: After winning Michigan, Hillary thinks the delegates from that state and Florida should be counted. From a statement she just sent out:
I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. I know not all of my delegates will do so and I fully respect that decision. But I hope to be President of all 50 states and U.S. territories, and that we have all 50 states represented and counted at the Democratic convention.
This is, of course, exactly what Floridians want to hear. The prospect that their votes might eventually count is likely to bring them to the polls. If the person fighting to get them counted is Hillary ... you see the logic. But after Hillary's camp made such a fuss over Obama allegedly campaigning in Florida, this move feels rather shameless.
That said, if one candidate emerges as the clear front-runner after Super Tuesday, it's hard to imagine the DNC barring Florida and Michigan delegates into the convention. The DNC would rather go back on their promise to strip delegates than make a scene. Then again, if the nomination comes down to a battle for delegates, then those two states could matter quite a bit. In which case, sucking up now could well pay off.
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The chatter among political types is a new McClatchy poll released yesterday showing Obama’s support among whites in South Carolina slipping from 20 percent to 10 percent in the past week.
The obvious interpretation would be, Obama has somehow alienated whites, who must be gravitating toward Clinton. If this were the case, it would bode poorly for Obama on Super Tuesday, where white voters will dominate.
But the numbers suggest a different take. Obama’s numbers dropped among whites, but Clinton’s, at 36 percent, aren’t particularly high. Rather, it’s John Edwards who wins the category, with 40 percent support, up from 28 percent. If Obama has lost white voters, it appears to be to Edwards, not to Clinton.
Indeed, South Carolina voters appear to be gravitating toward their “own.” Edwards leads among white men. Hillary’s the favorite among white women. Obama commands a majority among black men. And the tie-breaker—black women—goes to Obama as well.
Yes, perhaps Obama’s radio attack ads hurt him among whites. Perhaps Bill’s loose lips hurt Hillary among blacks. But the way it looks, everyone is just drifting into their respective comfort zones.
Disclaimer: There are many polls out there. This is just one of them.
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The holy grail of campaign opposition research is the perfect metaphor: an activity or hobby or object that captures a politician's character. For George W. Bush, the metaphor has been his ranch, allowing Hillary Clinton to describe his foreign policy as “cowboy diplomacy.” For John Kerry, the metaphor was his penchant for windsurfing, which critics highlighted to suggest that his positions drifted with the breeze.
With Mitt Romney, however, no perfect metaphor has emerged. He has no special passion for flipping pancakes, nor does he collect weather vanes, nor has he ever expressed an interest in robotics. What, then, can his opponents use to symbolize his foibles?
Meh, how about windsurfing again. Who cares that he doesn’t do it? (Or at least there aren’t any incriminating photographs.) Thanks to the wonders of Photoshop, John McCain’s new ad makes it look like Romney does, goofily pasting his face onto a windsurfer’s body. “Where does Mitt Romney stand?” a voiceover asks. “Whichever way the wind blows.”
Forget Swift Boating. John Kerry should reach across the aisle and speak out against windsurfing-ing.
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