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News outlets are projecting that John McCain has won the South Carolina primary—a win that once again makes him the front-runner in a still-crowded Republican field. And he has the civility of that crowded field to thank for his second victory.
In 2000, much was made about the dirty tricks played on McCain, but this time nobody messed with the senior nominee. As Jonathan Martin at Politico notes, his rivals didn't mention him by name and decided to attack one another rather than McCain (who has plenty of policy positions worth attacking, including immigration, tax cuts, and executive experience). By most accounts, the dirty tricks also decreased, with tamer windshield fliers and the normal inflammatory calls that were delivered in all states.
McCain's three-percentage-point win could have been stopped by a few attack ads here and there. At first, it seems strange McCain wasn't knocked around on TV. Mitt Romney already aired attack ads in New Hampshire, but his half-hearted efforts in the state over the past week meant Romney didn't want to spend the resources against McCain in a state he wasn't going to win. Fred Thompson had nothing to lose, but he and McCain are friends, and he didn't have the money to air many ads. And Mike Huckabee gave his infamous no-attack-ad press conference in Iowa, which meant he was out of the running. Huckabee even complimented McCain's civility in his concession speech.
Does this mean we'll see an outbreak of niceness on the campaign trail in Florida? Doubtful. Mitt Romney returns at full strength in the Sunshine State and Rudy Giuliani may surface as a desperate candidate as Jan. 29 draws nigh.
Before his campaign crashed over the summer, McCain was the for-sure front-runner, but he bobbled his chance at the nomination without any attack ads to aid his fall. History is unlikely to repeat itself this time.
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According to CNN's fancy map of South Carolina, Fred Thompson is sapping votes away from Mike Huckabee in the socially conservative north. If that's the case, Thompson probably has a smile on his face.
Thompson's distaste for Huckabee has been apparent throughout the campaign. Thompson often pushes back against Huckabee at debates and regularly sends emails critiquing Huckabee's stances on immigration and taxes. Persona-wise, Huckabee is everything Thompson isn't—charming, funny, and self-effacing. Most importantly, Huckabee possesses the star power that many Republicans hoped Thompson would have in the race. Huck is bizarro Fred.
Most importantly, Huckabee has stolen Thompson's base right out from under him. Thompson's from neighboring Tennessee, after all, so he was the guy supposed to be doing well in conservative South Carolina. Thompson was supposed to be the guy who grabbed the evangelical vote. Thompson was the guy people were supposed to coalesce around. Instead, the story became about Thompson's lassitude and Huckabee's quips.
Given all of this, it's not unreasonable to think that Thompson would stay in the race through Florida just to torment Huckabee. Despite a litany of shortcomings, Thompson still pulled in 15 percent in South Carolina tonight (with 72 percent precincts reporting), so he holds some sway. One would think he'd sap some of Huckabee's strength in Florida, as well. It may be Thompson's only chance to stay relevant.
In his speech tonight, Fred Thompson said his presidential campaign was never about him. He's right. Maybe it was always about Huck.
Photograph of Fred Thompson on Slate's home page by Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images.
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Fred Thompson, in his withdrawal way-out-of-first-place speech, finally looked and sounded presidential. But, alas, his time has finally come, whether or not he wants to realize it—and it's all Ronald Reagan's fault.
Thompson reached the most stirring line of his speech this evening when he said that the Reagan coalition was alive and well. If Thompson was right, he would have had more success in this primary race--therefore, he's totally wrong.
A quick primer on the Reagan Coalition: Three different conservative groups—foreign policy, economic, and social conservatives—all coalesced around one candidate to put him in office for eight years. But if any message has become apparent during this mad primary season, it's that there isn't a coalition anymore: It's every splinter group for itself.
Mike Huckabee courts social conservatives because of his hidden-crosses in political ads. Mitt Romney attracts economic conservatives because the only thing about his candidacy that stays constant is his business background. And John McCain courts foreign policy conservatives because of his Senate experience and military years. Note how those three men won the first three major contests. The coalition is dead. And it's questionable whether it will show up again in time for the general election.
If Thompson really thought the Reagan Coalition was going to get him elected, then he just wrote his own obituary.
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News is crossing the wire that Duncan Hunter is dropping out of the race. We hold a special spot in our heart for the wily California congressman, so here are a few posts to remember him by:
Duncan Hunter Gets Hacked - Relive Hunter's most dramatic moment, when Turkish nationalists messed with his web site.
The Hunter Who Cried Wolf - Dunc teases us and pretends to drop out, only to tell us he's in for the long haul. Looks like he changed his mind.
Just Give Up - Analyzing his barren, unkempt website.
It appears Fred Thompson may be joining him this evening. Thompson is in 4th in exit polls and early returns and John King on CNN says Thompson advisers think he'll pull out this evening. They can share tears in political heaven.
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Juicy bits from CNN's exit polls:
- Mike Huckabee and John McCain are in a tight race at the top.
- Young voters lean toward Huckabee, but seniors greatly favor McCain. This isn't surprising but could be a major factor if older voters turned out in greater numbers than the kiddies.
- Mitt Romney won the plurality of votes from Catholics who go to church weekly, which is good news for his campaign after his big Mormon speech a month or two ago. (Unsurprisingly, very religious voters of all denominations preferred Huckabee.)
- Only 9 percent of Catholics, who made up 14 percent of CNN's voter pool, voted for Huckabee. Thirty-nine percent voted for McCain.
- Forty-one percent of South Carolina voters thought McCain had the best chance of winning in November.
- Fifty-eight percent of voters, according to CNN's exit polls, were born-again Christians or evangelicals. They favor Huckabee 41 percent to McCain's 27 percent. Only 11 percent of non-born-agains and evangelicals voted for Huck.
- Huckabee won support among those who care most about immigration, McCain among those who care most about Iraq. Again, this follows the polling we saw before the primary.
- 25 percent of voters were veterans, and that group favored McCain. Huckabee and McCain were essentially tied among non-veterans.
We offer the usual disclaimer that exit polls are just polls, not results.
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Thanks to the caucuses' arcane viability rules, John Edwards appears to have finished with only 4 percent of the vote in Nevada, but that's probably not the case. Edwards actually has 4 percent of the delegates assigned, not 4 percent of the popular vote. Edwards probably ended up with 10-15 percent of the popular vote, but that doesn't matter. The number that gets broadcast all over the country is that nasty and brutish number four. The same thing happened to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden in Iowa.
Edwards' campaign has to figure out how to spin a 4-percent finish into momentum for South Carolina's native son primary. It won't be easy. Edwards doesn't have much traction in the polls, nor much money to counteract dead-man-walking talk. Plus, Obama continues to dominate the anti-lobby, Americans-want-change vote.
Here's what Edwards can try to do: make a last stand in South Carolina's primary on Jan. 26. This sounds like common sense, but Edwards doesn't seem to be paying attention to that these days. He just gave his I-finished-in-third-but-I'm-not-giving-up speech in Georgia, not South Carolina. Georgia votes Feb. 5, which is more than 2 weeks away. Plus, it has a large black population, a demographic in which Obama trounces Edwards. Edwards needs a good-news peg before then, and the only place to get it is South Carolina.
We know Edwards is comfortable talking about mills, his daddy, and that he grew up in the Palmetto State. Plus, he won there in 2004. Just because Obama and Clinton look like they have the black and establishment Democrat vote locked up, respectively, doesn't mean Edwards should stop fighting in South Carolina. After all, he's best at that.
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Make no mistake, Hillary Clinton's projected win in the Nevada caucuses is a big deal. Not because she won—polls had her in the lead going into the caucus--but because the culinary union failed.
After Barack Obama's win in Iowa and his defeat in New Hampshire, Nevada's culinary workers' union endorsed Barack Obama—a move that pundits, aides, and staffers all said greatly boosted Obama's chances and maybe even guaranteed a win. But something seems to have gone wrong.
Latinos make up a large but undetermined portion of the culinary union, yet they favored Clinton over Obama 2.5 to 1, a loss that is foreboding for Obama as he moves forward and may have doomed him in Nevada. Moreover, Obama lost to Clinton in Clark County, where a large majority of Nevadans live and where the union has especially large sway because of its epicenter in Las Vegas. Even the controversial at-large caucus sites couldn't help Obama beat Clinton. Clinton's camp said that the at-large sites may give Obama a 5-point jump in the results, but it doesn't seem that ended up happening. If it did, then Obama has even bigger problems than he thought.
Clinton may have Harry Reid's son to thank for overcoming the union's power. Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid endorsed Clinton early on and seems to have delivered enough establishment support to sap the union's strength. With 82 percent of precincts reporting, Clark County chose Clinton over Obama 54 percent to 44 percent.
One last tidbit: Clinton had more than twice the number of Nevada unions supporting her as either Obama or John Edwards. They weren't as large as Obama's, but union members may have fallen in line with the leadership's wishes more resolutely. Exit polls show that she was tied with Obama among union members.
Obama struggled to grab union support in the early primary states, so the culinary union was thought to be a major breakthrough. Instead, it may have just allowed him to save face.
Photograph of Hillary Clinton on Slate's home page by Elise Amendola/AP Photo.
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If the entrance polls are suggestive of real votes in Nevada, Barack Obama has a big problem on his hands. Ms. Clinton, meanwhile, has reason to celebrate and wonder why all the hoopla over unions and caucus sites was necesasry. According to CNN:
- Seventy-two percent of voters surveyed were older than 45, and they favored Clinton over Obama.
- More female voters than male. Both genders favored Clinton over Obama, but women especially so (52 percent to 30 percent).
- Sixty-five percent of voters say this week's debate in Nevada played into their decision, and Clinton leads among those voters by considerable margins.
- Eighty-three percent of voters were Democrats, 52 percent of whom chose Clinton and 33 percent of whom chose Obama.
- The silver lining for Obama is the 12 percent of voters who said they were supporting John Edwards. Reason follows that they would go to Obama as a second-choice candidate, not Hillary, because of the two candidates' change messages.
We must caution that these are entrance polls, so they aren't the most reliable metric in the race.
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Meanwhile, in Ron Paul land, some supporters are in a tizzy that Fox News didn't show Ron Paul in second or third as the results came in earlier today. They've got a point, but there's a bigger question here about how the race changes if Paul finishes in second. As of now, Paul and John McCain are fighting for second, and CNN's entrance polls show Paul pulling in more votes than McCain.
As we've already discussed, Paul and Romney were the only two candidates campaigning in the state in recent weeks, so Paul should be expected to finish second. But he may not get there. As of now, McCain is widening his lead on Paul for second. The good news is that the three- or four-point bump from Iowa's and New Hampshire's results could confirm that Paul's libertarian message can do better out West than it can in the rest of the country.
But this probably won't matter much for Paul's momentum going forward. Paul already has a ton of money, so he doesn't need any of the added funds a solid finish will bring in. Plus, he's trailing badly in South Carolina and Florida, so any momentum out of Nevada would be lost very quickly.
In many ways, Nevada is an ideal state for Paul, yet his percentage of support still couldn't break into the teens*. This may be the closest look we'll get at Paul's ceiling as a Republican, and it doesn't seem to be all that high.
UPDATE 6:27 p.m.: Paul now leads McCain with nearly all precincts reporting.
*UPDATE Jan. 20, 7:06 p.m.: Paul broke into the teens, netting 13 percent.
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In a caucus that nobody cared about, Mitt Romney is the predicted winner of the Republican contest in Nevada today. Yay for Mitt.
Romney and Ron Paul were the only two candidates who paid any attention to Nevada, which lost its importance when South Carolina Republicans scheduled their own primary for today. Leading up to Romney's win, the GOP candidates were given a choice. They could either make a statement down South or out West. All of them chose South Carolina, including Romney.
But after a heavy ad presence and campaign schedule, Romney couldn't find traction in South Carolina, so he decided to pull out and switch focus to Nevada, where CNN reports 25 percent of cacus-goers were Mormons.
So, not to be rude, but Mitt's win means very little. But Romney's campaign won't paint it that way. Here's a guide to some possible narratives that Romney's camp will spin, and why they're all hogwash.
- Expected spin: Nevada win bodes well for California! Spinback: When Nevada originally entered the hallowed early primary-state club, the parties thought Nevada could be the bellwether for the rest of the region. That meant it was going to take California's delegate-rich temperature and give the Nevada winner a head start to win in Reagan-land. But because only Paul and Romney paid attention, Nevada's result won't carry much sway in California, where all the remaining Republicans will compete.
- Expected spin: We're the delegate leader! Spinback: Romney is now guaranteed to be the delegate leader, regardless of what happens in South Carolina. But only Romney's campaign will think that's important. Of Romney's three wins, only one has come in a contested state (Michigan), while the other two have been in states the rest of the field has left alone (Wyoming and Nevada). Romney has yet to prove he can win when it counts and ran away from South Carolina when the going gets tough. He has to earn his delegates to have a delegate lead carry any import. Plus, even though the campaign is becoming less and less about momentum as Super Tuesday approaches, South Carolina's winner is going to be the real newsmaker today.
- Expected spin: Even evangelicals likes us! Spinback: CNN is reporting that outside of Romney's near-unanimous Mormon support, he also beat Mike Huckabee among evangelicals. Perhaps, but Huckabee never went to Nevada nor did he have any ads running, so Romney was essentially competing against Huckabee's media persona.
Photograph of Mitt Romney on Slate's home page by LM Otero/AP.