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"Hillary Deathwatch" Odds: 2.9 Percent
The past 24 hours have been a combination of sky highs and brutal
lows for Hillary Clinton. She won by double digits in West Virginia—one
of her biggest victories yet. But a superdelegate shutout (Obama won
four today to her zero) and a crippling campaign debt suggest the
victory will be short-lived. We'll bump her up 1.3 points to 2.9 percent, if only because tonight's victory all but guarantees she'll stick around a few more weeks.
First, the good news: Clinton's West Virginia victory gives her what she most desperately needs—arguments.
Her win, while expected, managed to suck away much of Obama's normal
coalition (minus blacks, who made up 4 percent of the electorate). She
can say Obama is weakening, that he's vulnerable in the general, and
that voters want her to stick it out. Not even a landslide victory
would earn Clinton enough pledged delegates to challenge Obama's tally,
and Obama's popular-vote lead
remains daunting. But she now has an excuse to stay in. In the words of
MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, Clinton is now an "understudy candidate,"
waiting in the wings to see if Obama catches the flu.
Read more at the Hillary Deathwatch.
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