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    "Hillary Deathwatch" Odds: Still 12.6 Percent

    Not much changes in the last 24 hours before polls open in Indiana and North Carolina, keeping Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at 12.6 percent.

    So, a quick snapshot: Polls show tightening races in both Indiana and North Carolina. Except for the occasional outlier, Clinton leads by a consistent five to 10 points in the Hoosier state, while Obama stays ahead in the Tar Heel state by a similar margin.

    Remember how Obama started his "countdown to the nomination" yesterday? Clinton counters, as usual, with her own math. According to her calculations, the magic number to seal the nomination isn't 2025, as the DNC has said. It's 2208—the number you get if you include Florida and Michigan. It fits her argument that those states should be seated at the convention—which Howard Dean says will happen.

    The problem is, superdelegates are still running from Hillary. Politico puts her ever-waning lead at 12 supers. Unless Clinton can make a big impression today—either with a blowout victory in Indiana or with an exceptionally strong showing among particular demographics—it's hard to see her stemming the flow.

    Read more at the Hillary Deathwatch.

About Christopher Beam

  • Christopher Beam is a Slate political reporter.
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