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May 2008 - Posts
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The biggest news in John McCain’s "2013" speech today is his suggestion that he’d have troops out of Iraq: By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her Read More...
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Endorsements from formerly coy John Edwards and the United Steelworkers for Obama are two more nails in the Clinton coffin. Clinton's odds drop 1.1 to 1.8 percent . Whatever momentum Clinton picked up from her 41-point West Virginia win the Obama camp Read More...
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John McCain’s speech on his vision for America may have been comically sunny , but it’s got one nugget of genuine inspiration: "My administration will set a new standard for transparency and accountability. I will hold weekly press conferences. I will Read More...
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If you're looking for entertainment, watch Republican candidates try to imitate Barack Obama’s hope/change shtick. In his now-famous Tuesday night memo to Republicans, NRCC Chair Tom Cole wrote that "Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a Read More...
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Ever since John Edwards dropped out in January “so that history can blaze its path,” he has been careful not to get in history’s way. Even when his endorsement would have carried real weight—before North Carolina, for example—he was quiet. It almost seemed Read More...
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Twenty-four hours later, the verdict seems to be that West Virginia’s results weren’t ideal for Obama, but they haven’t hurt him in any lasting way. Still, he’d no doubt prefer to avoid repeating the same experience in Kentucky, a state that’s a lot like Read More...
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Tous les blogs are aflutter today, less over Clinton’s West Virginia victory than over Democrat Travis Childers’ thumping of Republican Greg Davis in Mississippi’s First District special election. Despite the NRCC sinking $1.8 million into the race—plus Read More...
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The past 24 hours have been a combination of sky highs and brutal lows for Hillary Clinton. She won by double digits in West Virginia—one of her biggest victories yet. But a superdelegate shutout (Obama won four today to her zero) and a crippling campaign Read More...
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CNN’s projecting that Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia big time. The question is how, if at all, this can help her. She’s been running out of arguments for weeks. But here are a few ways she can spin today's results: 1) Obama’s coalition is splintering. Read More...
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This presidential race is full of celebrity look-alikes. Hillary Clinton and Star Trek 's Tasha Yar . Fred Thompson and Javier Bardem . But rarely does someone intimately involved in the race look exactly like someone else intimately involved in the race. Read More...
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Following up on my last item on West Virginia, a reader spotted another problem with Clinton’s claim that “[e]very nominee has carried the state’s primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.” “How Read More...
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Hillary Clinton will declare victory in the West Virginia primary tonight against a senator who no longer even considers himself her opponent. While Clinton is scheduled to be in Charleston, W.Va., for Election Night celebrations, Barack Obama will be Read More...
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The Clinton campaign fired off a new "memo" today arguing that West Virginia is essential to winning in November: "Every nominee has carried the state’s primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916." Read More...
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John McCain has some electoral vulnerabilities, but troop-supporting usually is not one of them. It’s a little baffling, then, that he hasn’t signed on to Sen. Jim Webb’s G.I. bill to increase educational benefits for servicemen and veterans. Republicans Read More...
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Former Georgia congressman and Clinton impeacher-in-chief Bob Barr announced today that he will be seeking the presidency as a candidate of the Libertarian Party. The first name that pops to mind is Ralph Nader. Republicans fear a repeat of 2000, with Read More...
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Be it resolved: John McCain's proposal for a series of unmoderated debates with Barack Obama throughout the summer is “a great idea.” That's what Obama called it, but others aren’t so sure. TNR ’s Noam Scheiber argues that free-for-all debates would help Read More...
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Clinton is poised to sweep West Virginia, but Obama has finally surged ahead in the most important contest of all: superdelegates. Dock Clinton half a point to 1.6 percent . We've believed for some time that the day Obama overtakes Clinton in the superdelegate Read More...
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As part of her Superdelegate Reassurance Tour, Hillary Clinton today sent out a PowerPoint slide show measuring her performance in the 20 "tough districts" that went for Bush in 2004 but elected Democrats in 2006. She won 16 of them; Barack Obama won Read More...
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Last week, we traced the New York Times editorial page’s growing disenchantment with Hillary Clinton, whom they endorsed back in February. Today, the editorial board argues that Clinton has every right to stay in the race. “But …” we believe just as strongly Read More...
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Ever since the Clinton campaign went on life support earlier this week, there’s been speculation that Barack Obama could persuade Hillary to drop out by promising to pay off her campaign debt. The Huffington Post ’s Tom Edsall wrote that “it is not uncommon Read More...
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In the new issue of Time , Karen Tumulty's list of the Five Mistakes Hillary Made includes a damning anecdote from a Clinton campaign strategy session last year: As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted Read More...
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Now that Barack Obama has all but secured the Democratic nomination, his campaign appears to be softening a bit when it comes to Michigan and Florida. Today, the Michigan Democratic Party settled on its final proposal for divvying up the state’s delegates: Read More...
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Yesterday, Trailhead invited readers to imagine what would have to happen for Barack Obama to lose the Democratic nomination. And boy did you respond. You, dear readers, are a motley assortment of creative and disturbed geniuses. Scenarios tended to fall Read More...
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More Clinton supporters get antsy, Obama unveils a bold new strategy to ignore Clinton, and her money woes could be deeper than expected. All of which sinks Clinton's chances another 0.2 points to 2.3 percent . California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, an early Read More...
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Slate ’s Nathan Heller points out that both HillaryClinton.com and BarackObama.com now redirect visitors directly to their contributions pages. (Actually, it looks like BarackObama.com just reverted as I was prepping this post.) Clinton’s minimum suggested Read More...
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Comedian / magician / author Penn Jillette has been telling a joke about Hillary Clinton for some time now. Or, rather, telling a story about the joke and its supposed meaning. But yesterday, he told it to the wrong people —Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski*—in Read More...
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A high-profile change of heart, a multimillion-dollar loan, and more Obama superdelegates drag Clinton down 1.7 points to 2.5 percent . George McGovern, the Democratic nominee for president in 1972, says he's done supporting Hillary Clinton . He told Read More...
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George McGovern isn’t a superdelegate, but his switch to Obama is still important, because it creates a model for other flip-flopping Clinton loyalists to imitate. Notice his rationale to MSNBC, where he professed “great affection” for the Clintons: “They Read More...
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If yesterday’s primaries showed anything, it’s that the slings and arrows of the past few weeks—the Rev. Wright, the "bitter" comment, flag pins, and various other 'gates—have not put a significant dent in Barack Obama’s chances. Meanwhile, a consensus Read More...
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The foundation of Hillary Clinton’s support is beginning to crack. George McGovern, whom you may remember from his starring role in the 1972 election, has called for Clinton to drop out of the race and says he is now endorsing Barack Obama. He’s the first—and, Read More...
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Over the last few elections the "Limbaugh effect" has gone from grassroots conspiracy theory to Obama-campaign talking point. On a campaign call today, John Kerry said that "If it was not for Republicans taking Democratic ballots, [Obama] would have won." Read More...
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In tonight’s Deathwatch , I asked, “Clinton pledged to stay in the race. The question is, why?” The answer is pretty clear, I now realize, if you look at the upcoming primary calendar . Next Tuesday, West Virginia votes. Polls are sparse , but Clinton Read More...
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We're hunkered down in Trailhead HQ watching the cable networks, and the coverage of the frozen Lake County results are striking for one reason, in particular: The pundits keep on chattering about something that doesn't matter. It doesn't matter who wins Read More...
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Tapping into our Map the Candidates archive , we discover that Clinton has made five stops in Lake County; Obama has made two. That includes one stop from each in Gary. Read More...
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Warning: The post you’re about to read is very math-heavy, and very speculative. But it’s worth a read if you’re waiting on the returns from Lake County in Indiana, which may not come in until after midnight. Lake County is the only substantial county Read More...
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Obama comes up big in North Carolina, and Clinton ekes out a win (as of 11 p.m.) in Indiana, the combination of which all but ends Clinton's shot at the nomination. Her chances drop 8.4 points to 4.2 percent . For the past few weeks, Hillary Clinton's Read More...
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Ever since Barack Obama started racking up primary and caucus wins after Super Tuesday, analysts have summed up Hillary Clinton’s prognosis with an odd statistic: the percent of the vote she needs in every remaining primary to catch up in pledged delegates. Read More...
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Obama is speaking in North Carolina now. At least as far as we can tell, everybody behind him is white. Only one person is male. Read More...
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Right now, Clinton’s best shot at winning the nomination is to overtake Obama in the popular vote. But Obama’s strong North Carolina win could kill Clinton’s chances of winning that metric. Obama currently leads Clinton by about 650,000 votes. (Real Clear Read More...
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Barack Obama was always supposed to win North Carolina. Twenty-one percent of the state’s population (Republicans and Democrats) is black; independents (but not Limbaugh-following Republicans ) were allowed to vote; and Obama won both of the neighboring Read More...
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Exit polls out of North Carolina suggest that Obama has won the state by about 14 percentage points. While CNN does not report the overall percentages for each candidate, we can divine them by weighting the demographic breakdown between the candidates Read More...
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Some highlights from the (sketchy, unreliable, not-to-be-trusted) exit polls: How’d Wright play? Thirty percent of voters said the Rev. Wright’s comments were “very important” to their vote. Of them, 69 percent voted for Clinton. Fox News concludes from Read More...
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As we’re waiting for the Hoosier/Cackalack results to come in, what better time to talk long-shot hypotheticals? Let's look at Hillary Clinton’s best-case scenario tonight and what it would mean for her campaign. She wins Indiana by double digits and Read More...
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Before the networks call the winners in a primary, they don't have much to talk about beside exit polls. (Neither, frankly, do we.) The exit polls are notoriously unreliable, especially because the networks update their numbers as new waves of data come Read More...
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Welp, here we are, 124 days after Iowa caucus-goers had their say, and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are still campaigning to make sure the sun rises tomorrow morning. They’ve made more than 100 stops in Indiana and North Carolina, and, after tonight, Read More...
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When it comes to policy decisions, Hillary Clinton often follows the rule: When in doubt, call timeout. Rather than find a solution, put everything on pause while we look for a solution. Most recently, Clinton called for a suspension of the gas tax. The Read More...
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Not much changes in the last 24 hours before polls open in Indiana and North Carolina, keeping Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at 12.6 percent . So, a quick snapshot: Polls show tightening races in both Indiana and North Carolina . Except Read More...
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The focus of yesterday’s Teamster flap —it hasn’t quite reached ’gatehood yet—centered on whether or not Obama wants to reduce federal oversight of the country’s fourth-largest union. Obama said that the union had done a “terrific job cleaning itself Read More...
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In the board game Risk, if you control Australia, you control the entire game. ( As our boy Hurley reminded us recently .) You get an extra few armies every turn, you can amass a three-country-wide firewall across Southeast Asia, and it provides a point-of-deployment Read More...
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Barack Obama doesn’t say he would scrap the consent decree under which the federal government has overseen the Teamsters for the past two decades. He just says that he’d start to think about possibly scrapping it. This maneuver—the soft pander—has been Read More...
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We’ve gotten complaints about the Hillary Deathwatch before, but this is a new one. Dear Application Developer, A Facebook user requested that we forward an anonymous report that your application The Hillary Clinton Deathwatch (application ID #30705275390) Read More...
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The home stretch to Indiana and North Carolina is pocked by negative ads, indecisive polls, and last-minute revelations about Barack Obama and the Teamsters. With an Indiana win within reach, Clinton's chances inch up 0.3 points to 12.6 percent . Clinton Read More...
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DemConWatch, the Rain Man of primary delegate counting, today breaks down six different scenarios for how Florida's and Michigan’s delegates could get allocated. If neither state’s delegates are counted, for example, Obama currently leads by 130 delegates. Read More...
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Clinton's prospects for surviving Indiana and North Carolina continue to look favorable. Howard Dean still wants to seat Florida and Michigan delegates—which would probably benefit Clinton—while another former DNC chair endorses Obama. Jimmy Carter indicates Read More...
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In an interview with Nightline yesterday, Clinton said, "If we had the Republican rules, I would already be the nominee." This line—she and Bill have said it a few times now—has led to some marvelous takedowns, from Jon Stewart to the New Republic ’s Read More...
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Former Slate intern and North Carolina native Jake Melville sends along this dispatch: Barack Obama pitches himself as a "post-partisan" politician who can bridge our divides. But by playing a pickup game with the University of North Carolina Tar Heels Read More...
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Jonathan Chait points out a Media Matters article by Eric Boehlert criticizing news organizations for their "unique push to get a competitive White House hopeful to drop out of the race." Boehlert cites columnists, editorial pages, and our very own Hillary Read More...
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Back in January, the New York Times endorsed Hillary Clinton, praising her as "brilliant," "capable of both uniting and leading," and "more qualified" to be president than Barack Obama. At the time, the New Republic ’s Gabriel Sherman reported that the Read More...
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Obama woos a superdelegate away from Clinton, Hillary's own supporters dislike her gas-tax holiday, and new polls suggest the Obama-Clinton split is getting deeper but that Democrats are still likely to win the White House. Clinton dives half a point Read More...
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Ever since Barack Obama got pegged as an elitist, that’s been the running subplot of the campaign. Just look at what the debate over the gas-tax holiday has become. Hillary Clinton’s plan to temporarily reduce the gas tax by 18.4 cents is, to put it gently, Read More...
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