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New "Hillary Deathwatch" Odds: 11.9 Percent

Clinton's win in Pennsylvania changes the whole Deathwatch calculus. Back when things were really dismal for her, no news was good news. As my colleague Chris Beam aptly put it in early April, her odds were like the health meter in Gears of War: It went up any time it wasn't actively going down. Now that she's on the up-and-up again, the adage about sharks applies: She has to stay in motion constantly to stay alive. (Note: Apparently this is only true of some sharks.) So a new poll that has Obama up 41 percent to Clinton's 38 percent in Indiana—functionally a tie, given the margin of error—is a giant inertia killer on the horizon. But continued attacks on Obama from several fronts offset the damage, so we're only docking her 0.2 points, bringing her to 11.9 percent.

Let's cover the bad news for Obama first: As Deathwatch mentioned yesterday, pastor-pariah the Rev. Jeremiah Wright recently gave an interview on PBS, which airs tonight. While some argue that any humanization of Wright can help Obama in the long run, the mere reminder that Wright exists cannot possibly help Obama today. Wright continues to be a liability for Obama, as we are reminded by this ad that the North Carolina Republican Party claims it will run ahead of the state's May 6 primary.

Read more at the Hillary Deathwatch.