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April 2008 - Posts
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Barack Obama slams the Rev. Wright, Clinton's gas-tax plan receives jeers, and Indiana is still a tossup, all of which brings Clinton down 0.3 points to 12.6 percent . Obama's decision to cut Wright loose Tuesday was an investment in the future: Let the Read More...
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For those Democrats who worry that the protracted primary battle is exposing deep divides in the party’s base, Republican-style winner-take-all primaries are looking more attractive. For at least one Republican, the opposite is true: A Democratic-style Read More...
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Per The Hill , Hillary Clinton is requesting $2.3 billion in earmarks for 2009. That number alone doesn’t mean much unless you compare it to the combined $0 being requested by John McCain and Barack Obama. Clinton has every reason to request a load of Read More...
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Slate 's Timothy Noah passes along this analysis: “Right here, over 200 Hoosiers built parts that guided our military’s smart bombs to their targets,” Hillary Clinton says in a TV spot currently airing in Indiana. The camera zooms in on a shuttered factory Read More...
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In a press conference today, Barack Obama pronounced himself "outraged" and "saddened" at "the spectacle" of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s recent remarks alleging that the government invented AIDS, equating U.S. military efforts abroad with terrorism, and Read More...
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The “gas-tax holiday” recommended by John McCain (and endorsed in part by Hillary Clinton) proposes a temporary reduction of the federal gas tax by 18.4 cents per gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day. But how temporary would it likely be? Reimposing Read More...
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A media frenzy over the Rev. Wright, a bump in matchup polls, and a key North Carolina endorsement buoy Clinton's chances 0.5 points to 12.9 percent . The response to the Rev. Wright's speech at the National Press Club was so negative, some papers must Read More...
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After his speech today at the National Press Club, Jeremiah Wright was asked by the moderator whether he honestly believes, as he said in one of his sermons, that “the government lied about inventing the AIDS virus as a means of genocide against people Read More...
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Last week we got all optimistic about John McCain’s decision to call off the cavalry in North Carolina, where the Republican Party was planning to run an ad attacking two Democratic gubernatorial candidates for their associations with Barack Obama using Read More...
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Barack Obama has been trying to keep the Rev. Jeremiah Wright out of the spotlight for a long time now. As far back as February 2007, he rescinded an invitation for Wright to deliver the invocation at his presidential announcement. But now Wright is pushing Read More...
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Hillary Clinton continues to have a logic problem. After her win in Pennsylvania, her campaign reiterated their claim that winning big, reliably Democratic states means she’s a more electable candidate in November. While that’s entirely possible, there’s Read More...
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On the last stop of John McCain’s umpteenth tour in recent memory—this one visitng “America’s forgotten places”—he swung through New Orleans for an opportunity to slam President Bush for his handling of Hurricane Katrine in front of the dilapidated houses Read More...
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Clinton's win in Pennsylvania changes the whole Deathwatch calculus. Back when things were really dismal for her, no news was good news. As my colleague Chris Beam aptly put it in early April , her odds were like the health meter in Gears of War: It went Read More...
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Responding to our earlier post , Slate 's James Ledbetter weighs in with a few more reasons Clinton shouldn't count on a 2012 win: 1) HRC is not getting any younger; she will turn 65 in 2012 and 69 in 2016. Multiple presidential bids are going to take Read More...
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The Maximum Damage Theory has been floating around for some time now. It holds that Hillary Clinton knows she can’t win the nomination but wants to hurt Obama as much as possible so he’ll lose in November and she can run against McCain in 2012. So far, Read More...
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Among the many assumptions swirling around the Democratic race, one has been that open primaries—elections in which independents and Republicans can also vote—benefit Obama. He’s been viewed as the bridge builder with broader appeal. But that appears Read More...
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For the past few months, Hillary Clinton has emphasized that wins in big Democratic states like California, New York, and Pennsylvania make her more likely to beat John McCain in February. That, to say the least, has no factual grounds whatsoever. ( Jeff Read More...
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It must be nice to be Hillary Clinton right now. Adoring fans have given her $10 million. The media have started to believe that she can actually win. Jeremiah Wright is coming out of hibernation just in time to derail Obama's candidacy once and for all. Read More...
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We're hoping to start including more reader responses in our posts, so here's a good place to start. One reader, Mike, weighs in on yesterday's post about McCain's letter to the North Carolina GOP about its ad invoking Jeremiah Wright: I think you've Read More...
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Hillary Clinton is screwed. Oh wait, she has a chance. Actually, she’s screwed again. Hold up, she’s about to win! The media can’t seem to make up its mind. Now, in the post-Pennsylvania lull, journalists are deciding that in fact Clinton can win. Over Read More...
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Even as Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama in pledged delegates, the popular vote, and number of states won, she has made it clear that she plans to stay in the race for the nomination. All of which brings me to this logical conclusion: It is time for Read More...
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I’m generally skeptical about suggestions that this general election will be more civil than most. Just look what happened to the Democratic race, which back in 2007 felt like an ice cream social compared with the GOP race. But there are signs of hope. Read More...
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Tonight on Larry King Live : Bill Richardson. James Carville. The political showdown to end all political showdowns. A traitor versus a former compatriot. Benedict Arnold versus George Washington. Brutus versus Caesar. Anakin versus Obi-Wan . It all comes Read More...
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So much for being broke. The Clinton campaign is claiming they’re on course to raise $10 million in the wake of her Pennsylvania win. That’s a money bomb even Ron Paul would admire. According to the campaign, they’ve received money from more than 60,000 Read More...
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The Clinton campaign has always had its own way of doing things. When Clinton realized she couldn’t win the pledged-delegate count, it became about the popular vote. When that gap widened, it became about “big states.” Now it’s back to being about the Read More...
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The New York Times editorial page posted its post-Pennsylvania reaction last night, the gist of which suggests they may be regretting their previous endorsement of Hillary Clinton. They don’t quite urge her to drop out, but they do chide her for the campaign’s Read More...
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On a conference call this morning, Obama strategist David Plouffe rejects a Washington Post report that Obama will go supernegative over the coming weeks. From the Post : In the two weeks leading up to the Indiana primary, a Democratic strategist familiar Read More...
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On Monday, we predicted Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania: "Clinton will win by eight points—just high enough for her to stick around, just low enough for Obama supporters to claim she's done." As it turns out, we were off; it was more like Read More...
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Watching the Obama speech right now ... Speaking of people standing behind the candidates , has anyone else noticed the three guys behind Obama wearing Abercrombie & Fitch? What is this, product placement? A last-minute appeal to white voters? A Trailhead Read More...
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We've written at length about Clinton's attachment to Rocky and her flawed belief that Balboa's plight mirrors her own. (Her devotion to the comparison has also inspired one of the greater YouTube political mashups of all time.) Tonight, Clinton has taken Read More...
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With nearly half of precincts reporting, Trailhead is prepared to cautiously call the Republican primary for John McCain, who currently leads the state with 72 percent of the vote against one man who dropped out 49 days ago and another who rarely tops Read More...
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Yesterday Politico ’s Roger Simon wondered how much of the vote Obama would lose by virtue of his race alone. Simon cites an AP poll in which eight percent of voters said they would not vote for a black man, but guesses that figure is low—it’s really Read More...
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We've got one hand on the remote and one on our Delegate Calculator as we try to suss out what different margins of victory mean for the two candidates. One thing, though, is certain: Hillary Clinton has already won 28 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Read More...
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Surprise! Fox News and NBC and CNN are calling it for Clinton. As we and everyone else with an Internet connection has been saying for weeks now, it just matters by how much. Earlier today, Chad Matlin gamed out the various victory margins and what they Read More...
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When it comes to exit polls, I’ve taken it as a given that change and experience are just euphemisms for Obama and Clinton. If someone says they want change, chances are they’re an Obama voter; same with experience and Clinton voters. But these exits Read More...
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The exit polls have arrived! All of the highlights below use CNN's numbers , which may change as the night goes on and they iron out their projections. The demographics heavily favor Clinton. Fifty-eight percent of voters were women; 38 percent were 60 Read More...
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During the past six weeks, Barack Obama has thrown everything and then some at Pennsylvania, outspending Hillary Clinton 3-to-1 , traversing the state, and saturating its airwaves. The effort has pulled him out of his former 16-point ditch, but at the Read More...
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UPDATE 8:58 p.m.: NBC and Fox News have called the Pennsylvania primary for Hillary Clinton. Once you get past your initial excitement, it's clear that a win by one point and a win in the double-digits mean very different things. Earlier today we predicted Read More...
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It's no coincidence that the two most-repeated Clinton quotes of the past day are: 1) "Who do you think has what it takes?" 2) "I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran. ... In the next 10 years, during which they might Read More...
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All three candidates gave short speeches yesterday introducing World Wrestling Entertainment's "Monday Night Raw." Hillary called herself “Hill-Rod,” Obama asked if you can “smell what Barack is cooking,” and John McCain threatened to let his “McCainiacs Read More...
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Here’s a fascinating historical parallel to the Pennsylvania primary, from Politico : Political analysts point to the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary between Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr. as the closest comparison to the matchup between Obama and Read More...
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The Barack-Obama-is-the-next-JFK theme has basically vanished since Teddy K’s endorsement didn’t do Obama much good in Massachusetts. But, ever-so-subtly, Hillary Clinton could be reviving the comparison—only this time, she’s invoking JFK’s naivete to Read More...
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How’s this for rapid response: 11: 15 a.m.: Clinton campaign e-mails: “NEW AD: Clinton Campaign Unveils New Ad Asking Voters, ‘Who Do You Think Has What it Takes?’ ” [Watch it here .] 4:49 p.m.: Obama campaign e-mails: “AD RESPONSE TO CLINTON FEAR AD” Read More...
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Via Ben Smith , here’s a great video of Gov. Ed Rendell berating talking to college students who support Obama. It’s almost pointless to note Rendell going off-message—it happens every time he opens his mouth. But this time, he’s essentially repeating Read More...
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In case you're curious, Pennsylvania polls close at 8 p.m. tomorrow. Just in time for American Idol . Read More...
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Last week we discussed how the case of Kentucky Rep. Geoff Davis, who referred to Barack Obama as “that boy,” might serve as a cautionary tale for John McCain. If McCain’s age becomes an issue in the general—and it no doubt will—we figure it’s not inconceivable Read More...
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The Clinton campaign has released what it calls its "closing argument" ad: " Kitchen ." The formula is familiar—a montage of scary images over an ominous drumbeat, followed by uplifting music and a picture of Hillary. The question: “Who do you think has Read More...
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Despite a flurry of negative ads from both sides, Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania lead holds steady. So with no clear ups or downs, we're leaving her chances of winning the nomination at 9.9 percent . If you don't have something nice to say, don't say Read More...
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John McCain’s released two years of tax returns today to little fanfare. We learn that he earned $405,000 in 2007. We learn that he’s giving his ex-wife $17,000 a year in alimony. What we don’t learn, though, is how much he’s getting from his current Read More...
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As we've noted here before, Hillary Clinton must convince voters—well, superdelegates actually—of two things: not only that she's the best candidate, but that she's so the best candidate that it's worth dragging this election out at least until June 3, Read More...
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Let’s stop pretending it’s about the voters. Hillary Clinton’s strategy right now rests on whether or not she can sway superdelegates, and it’s clear to anyone who can count that the strategy is not going well—Obama has narrowed Clinton’s superdelegate Read More...
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While watching the shoulder-brushing video we mentioned yesterday, some people had a different reaction. The Los Angeles Times ’ Andrew Malcolm cites a “one-fingered gesture” Obama made while criticizing Clinton’s debate tactics and suggests it was a Read More...
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Ben Smith points out a fantastic moment in Barack Obama’s speech in Raleigh today, in which he described what you have to do when confronted with negative attacks like the flap over his “bitter” comment: “You just gotta kind of let it—,” he said, before Read More...
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Reason No. 423 why I can’t wait for the general election: No more tedious, transparent expectations gaming. Right now we’re being told that Barack Obama doesn’t plan on coming close to winning the Pennsylvania primary. Heck, he’d be happy if he got a Read More...
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Remember all the mileage Clinton got out of the SNL bit that depicted the media as Obama-lovers? Obama finally has a comeback. His campaign just fired off an e-mail to supporters complaining about the “gotcha politics and distractions” that dominated Read More...
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The 21 st debate has come and gone, and the general consensus is that Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama behind the lecterns. Her win barely outweighs the announcement of two more superdelegates and a newspaper endorsement for Obama. As a result, her chances Read More...
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In last night’s spectacular orgy of anti-issues , many viewers were introduced to a new name: Bill Ayers. Barack Obama’s associations with the former Weather Underground member have been known for some time. Ben Smith reported in February that Ayers and Read More...
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Usually, it’s the process questions that produce sparks at debates. Networks rely on questions about flag pins, VP picks, and radical hippie friends, because they reveal differences in character rather than policy. So in a primary like this one, where Read More...
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Clinton’s getting all the laughs tonight. All two of them. In an answer about the D.C. gun ban, she refers to Dick Cheney as “a fourth branch [of government] all to himself,” which gets yuks. Earlier, she made a crack about how it would be nice if the Read More...
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It’s more than an hour into the debate, and finally we get a question that’s not about a pastor, a surrogate, a gaffe, or a flag pin. On Iraq: George and Charlie ask if Clinton would really pull out of Iraq even if military commanders said no. Her answer: Read More...
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They approach the electability question sideways, via Obama’s association with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers. Clinton brings up the fact that Obama sat on a corporate board with Ayers, who she says refused to repent for the bombs he once Read More...
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