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Rudy's Gamble
This election cycle has seen its conventional wisdom
bonfires. Hillary’s inevitability: gone. Obama’s insurmountable lead in New Hampshire: gone.
McCain’s summer of death: long gone. But the most brazen assault on the most
conventional wisdom of all—Giuliani’s decision to neglect the early
states—has failed miserably.
There were moments when the gamble didn’t seem insane. At
one point, Rudy commanded a strong lead nationally and in Florida, which he called his “firewall.”
After Huckabee surged last minute and won Iowa, anything was possible. McCain’s win in
New Hampshire and Romney’s victory in Michigan didn’t exactly
discredit Giuliani’s strategy either. As Slate’s John Dickerson wrote at the time, “the GOP primary
is starting to look like a Pee Wee soccer tournament: Everyone gets a trophy!”
Of course Rudy would get his!
The theory started to crack after Michigan,
when Giuliani’s numbers began sliding nationally and in Florida. By the time both Romney and McCain
snapped up two more trophies, Rudy was all but forgotten. His “slow and steady
wins the race” philosophy crumbled when it turned out he was actually just
slow.
So does this reaffirm the rule that you have to win Iowa or New
Hampshire to win the nomination? Or was this a
worthwhile gamble that didn’t pan out? I’d argue the former. If there was a
year to take the risk, it was this one—the chaotic nature of the contest
appeared to reward patience. And if there was a person who could pull it off,
it was Rudy. He had the national stature to survive without boosts from the
earliest states, and Florida
is big enough that a win there would have reset the game. All the pieces were
there. People are now saying that Rudy did poorly in Florida because
he spent so much time there. Either that or, much as we hate to admit it, the
conventional wisdom was correct.
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